By
Michael Diekola
In an era where accurate data drives innovative governance and global investor confidence, Nigeria has taken a significant step forward with the successful completion of its long-anticipated rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Far from being a statistical vanity project or an effort to reclaim the title of “Africa’s largest economy,” the rebasing exercise reflects Nigeria’s commitment to capturing the actual structure, scale, and scope of its economy in line with global standards.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which led the rebasing process, this exercise is a routine statistical activity mandated to be carried out at least every five years. It is undertaken not to boost rankings but to ensure that economic figures remain relevant and reliable. GDP rebasing allows economies to account for new sectors, technologies, and changes in consumption patterns, many of which evolve rapidly in dynamic societies like Nigeria’s. As such, a country cannot manipulate these numbers to its advantage, especially given the intense scrutiny and validation involved from global institutions like the World Bank, the IMF, and the African Development Bank.
One of the most significant benefits of the rebasing is its potential to boost investorg confidence, especially among foreign direct investors and Nigerians in the diaspora, who seek a more transparent and more credible picture of the local economic landscape. With new data now revealing a broader base of activity, previously informal or underrepresented sectors, such as digital services, fintech, environmental management, and creative industries, are being drawn into the formal economic narrative. This shift allows investors to more accurately assess risk, identify opportunities, and direct capital where growth potential is highest. It is therefore not surprising that an uptick in FDI is anticipated as a result of the rebasing, though, as experts point out, investment also depends on governance, infrastructure, and market stability.
Another layer of significance lies in how the rebased figures will influence economic planning at the state level. While Nigeria’s GDP is typically reported as a national aggregate, the NBS has already conducted state-level GDP assessments for 22 states and plans to extend this to all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The more detailed classification of economic activity made possible by the rebased framework will enable states to measure their output more accurately, plan more effectively, assess debt sustainability, and engage with the private sector more strategically. In a federation as diverse as Nigeria, this sub-national economic clarity is nothing short of transformative.
The rebasing process itself was impressively collaborative, involving a wide array of stakeholders across the government and private sectors. Key Ministries, Departments and Agencies, such as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), all contributed sectoral data that informed the updated figures. At the sub-national level, state governments participated through their statistical agencies and accountants general, providing expenditure reports and collaborating in surveys. The involvement of the international development community further underscored the credibility of the exercise, with technical validation provided by the IMF, World Bank, and AfDB.
Looking ahead, the NBS has laid out a clear plan for the post-rebasing phase. A backcasting and benchmarking process will follow the release of nominal GDP figures in January 2025 to ensure the continuity of the time series data, which is critical for meaningful trend analysis and policy formulation. Dissemination efforts will include a robust media campaign, stakeholder briefings, and the publication of detailed reports on the NBS website in August 2024. Additionally, a Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) document has been produced to provide further clarity for citizens, journalists, academics, and policymakers alike.
Despite the magnitude of the update, rebasing is not the magic wand that solves all economic challenges. It does not erase poverty, reduce unemployment, or address income inequality overnight. What it does, however, is provide the clarity needed to tackle these issues more effectively. It provides policymakers, businesses, and citizens with the tools to ask better questions, make more informed decisions, and measure the actual impact of reforms. In an era of data-driven development, the value of a clear economic vision cannot be overstated.
As for the future, the rebasing cycle will continue. With 2019 now established as the new base year, the next rebasing is expected in 2026, with base year data likely becoming available by 2028. This rhythm of statistical renewal ensures that Nigeria remains responsive to its evolving economic dynamics, always working from a place of knowledge rather than guesswork.
The rebasing exercise is, therefore, not just a national accounting update; it is a reminder that growth is not merely about size, but about structure, not only about numbers, but also about the people those numbers represent. It is a mirror held up to the economy, reflecting not just what Nigeria is today, but what it must do to become the economy its people deserve tomorrow.
The rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP is more than a statistical exercise; it is a necessary reset that equips the nation with a better understanding of the fundamental structure of its economy. By updating its economic measurements to reflect present-day realities, Nigeria now has a clearer, broader, and more credible foundation for economic planning, investment decision-making, and policy design. This improved clarity strengthens the country’s credibility with international stakeholders, energises local and foreign investor confidence, and empowers states with more accurate tools for sub-national economic management.
However, the actual value of this rebasing lies not only in the updated numbers, but also in how they are utilised. With this enhanced data, Nigeria has an opportunity to confront deep, seated issues like inequality, unemployment, and underinvestment with greater precision. It is now up to policymakers, private sector leaders, and development partners to translate this statistical clarity into tangible socio-economic progress. As the country moves forward, the rebased GDP should serve not as a finish line, but as a more accurate map, one that helps chart a more inclusive, resilient, and prosperous economic future for all Nigerians.
DIEKOLA IS A LAGOS-BASED CHARTERED ACCOUNTANT. HE CAN BE REACHED AT [email protected]