On Saturday October 18th, 2025, a news report to the effect that sixteen senior military officers led by an unnamed Brigadier General and other ranks have been arrested by military authorities in connection with an alleged plot to unseat President Bola Tinubu, the country’s fifth elected President since the return of the country to Civil rule on May 29, 1999 after sixteen years of military interregnum.
The report must have taken many Nigerians by surprise not only for its negative prospect for destabilizing the country just trying to find its feet out of the wobbling economic debacle vision less leaders have plunged it.
It may disrupt the evolving political development of the country needed for stability and national cohesion.
However, the report which was avoided by the mainstream media and other credible Online medium.
This is understandable having originated from the stable of Sahara Reporters- a stable known for its less credible investigations some of which have ruffled not a few feathers.
The report becomes more suspicious and quite interesting giving the fact that it was published four days to the commencement of the ‘match on Aso Rock’ protest being led by Publisher of the online stable, Omoyele Sowore, known more for his frequent face-off with present and previous administration’s than the business of publishing which was an addition to his political activism.
While one may not question Sowore’s right to protest against perceived government policies, the essence of his proposed protest is more curious given his call for release of Nnamdi Kanu- a fellow whose role border more on alleged treason and terrorism against the country for which he is standing trial.
That the protest is planned at a time when the Supreme Court has ruled that Kanu has a case to answer and should enter his defense is somewhat a disdain for the rule of law under which both Kanu and Sowore-his new found supporter and whose political activism border on the disruption of the democratic process than conduct of elections.
Why the coincidence in the planned rally and the rather strange perceptions drawn from a press statement which announced the arrest of sixteen military officers for offences bordering on internal discipline within the military.
Yes, it is undeniable that out of every rumour there is an iota of truth giving the precarious nature of our body polity where politicians often act in cahoots with strange forces to get to power.
Furthermore, that the report alleged that the officers were planning to effect change of government on October 1, the day of Nigeria’s independence anniversary is curious.
Curious because had the alleged coup been carried out, it will mean that the planners are out to send a strong message to the continued stability and existence of Nigerian nation giving its far-reaching implications.
That the military has spent 29 years in power out of the country’s 65 years of independence especially at a time when the nation discovered its highest revenue in the early 70’s and late 90s Oil windfall of the Gulf war earnings is not questionable.
Today, question as to how over $2b realised from the gulf War crude jumbo sales remains unanswered.
Hence, the blame on the country’s embarrassing under-development is more on the military institution which has gradually become the alternate ruling class in the country.
It is, because out of the 36 years the country has experienced civilian rule, 16 of it were presided over by Presidents sourced from the club of retired military ruling class.
It becomes more interesting for the development of our political culture.
Isn’t it curious that by design the first retired military head of state, General Olusegun Obasanjo was foisted on the country by his colleagues and the club of former military rulers in 1999.
The former rulers did so to protect their selfish interests and stakes after years of rule.
They feared electing a full- blooded civilian as President after sixteen years in power would affect the military establishment which has over the years become the alternate ruling class in the country.
It is without gainsaying that the performance in office of both Obasanjo and Buhari who also came from retirement having tried but failed thrice, remains a sore point in our development efforts.
What of various white elephant projects like Ajaokuta Steel Mill, the refineries on which about $16 billion has been spent with nothing but fuel queues and importation laced with questionable subsidy payments to show for it.
This is coupled with the systemic destruction of our value system.
What of the curious sales of our undervalued national asset during the privatization years of the Obasanjo regime especially the Aluminum smelter company and other strategic national assets seriously undervalued by the regime and sold to their choice bidders.
The result is such that politicians that came out of their governance style both as full military rulers and military turns civilian leaders, have militarized our psyche as a people and change the character of politics.
Over the years especially during the winding Babangida’s transition programme, money became the only weapon used by politicians who emerged from being military contractors to modern day politicians.
Ironically, military rule may sound attractive to the mob of restless youths under the direction of both Sowore and Kalu since most of them are in their late 20s and 30s with little or no knowledge of evils of military rule ignited by late Major Kaduna Nzeogwu in 1966.
Nzeogwu, who though may be imbued with a revolutionary zeal was unlucky to have his planned revolution punctured and hijacked by his tribal minded colleagues who reduced the first coup of January 15, 1966 to ‘killing of Northerners and Westerners’.
That time and season did not permit Nzeogwu to demonstrate his avowed nationalism having failed to capture power, is a function of both his naivety about the complex nature of Nigeria’s geopolitics and the lack of focus by his fellow ‘revolutionaries ‘ who killed the ‘dream’ with their selective execution of the coup and the attendant ethnic coloration for which Nigeria is yet to come out.
Major General Aguiyi Ironsi’s hijack of the coup and his rather suspicious and naive introduction of Unification Decree 34 of May 1966, was the last straw which broke not only the camels of his illegal regimes back but reversed and destroyed the spirit of true federalism which reigned in the hearts of our founding fathers when the country attained independence on October 1, 1960.
It is an understatement to state that the Unification policy has permanently reversed Nigeria’s unity in diversity. Thanks to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who reintroduced the old but now new National Anthem: Nigeria we hail thee.
That anthem portrayed our diversity and collective resolve to recognise and flow with it.
The question now is, Is Sowore’s “March on Aso Rock” on October 20 designed to reignite the spirit of federalism berthed in 1960 but killed by overzealous youths of his age group in 1966 or lead the ill-informed youths of modern day revolutionaries who failed to see new beginning offered by our first truly civilian President who understands the need for fundamental change of economic and human resources direction to berth a new nation.
A new nation devoid of fake and unrealistic economic programmes designed to make us beggars locally and internationally even in the midst of untapped resources to make our nation great but which years of military rule has derailed for selfish reasons of our emergent leaders.
Assuming that the 16 officers and or others yet to be unmasked are planning a military coup, are they going to replay the July 29, 1966 ‘revenge’ coup which plunged us into civil war or rather will the coup plotters align with Nnamdi Kanu’s IPOB separatists group to dismember the nation far more than they have done in the South East geo political zone.
Since both Sowore and Abubakar Atiku, who had the opportunity of being vice president for eight years but effect no positive change is angling to use Sowores “march on Aso Rock” to get to power in the next election we all wait and see.
One only hopes those trying to ride on the back of the Tiger would not end up inside its belly.
The early demise of the second republic after late Murtala/ Obasanjo transition to civilian rule regime of Shehu Shagari was a reflection of the floppy constitution which operation was alien to our democratic culture.
This is without detailing the emergent Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime which though inspired hope by its earlier tough stance but fell by machinations of fifth columnists within its leader who were waiting in the wings to plot emergence of the evil genius in Ibrahim Babangida.
Babangida’s deceptive mien took Nigeria on an unending eight years transition programme.
His ‘success’ by further compounding Nigeria’s fragile unity with the infamous annulment of Nigeria’s freest election of June 12, 1993 is evident.
It was to Babangida’s credit that economic and political vocabulary of ‘settlement and annulment’ were added to Nigeria’s list of infamous societal ills which not only destroyed what is left of the values inherited from our founding fathers, all in an attempt to prolong his tenure. His leadership and rulership style made the two mentioned vices foundation of corruption.
The vices mentioned combined to redefine our culture as billions of dollars made during our temporal years of resurgence of oil boom which regime of General Yakubu Gowon in the 70s, flittered away via naivety and corruption that railroaded his nine-year regime were also reinforced during Babangida’s tenure.
Nobody is yet to explain the billions of dollars made during his tenure but frittered away by his unending transition programme.
Should we also remind ourselves of Babangida’s strategic retention of his friend late General Sanni Abacha who removed the illegal Earnest Shonekan contraption hurriedly put together in the face of public condemnation that greeted the June 12 election annulment.
Abacha regime not only drove democracy underground but also killed, maimed and muzzled voices such that his five-year reign of terror pushed Nigeria to the edge of the precipice as it also claimed the lives of first democratically elected President, late business tycoon and philanthropist, Moshood Kashimawo Abiola.
However, the denial of the coup rumour by the Defence headquarters in a way might have helped to lessen probable tension in the polity but not too far from been on the defensive.
The military has more explanation to give after its investigations.
Though, it could be inferred that the initial press statement announcing the detention of the sixteen officers could be said to be logical enough, but the defence headquarters should have put a face to the counter -claim by releasing for public interest the names of the officers since they are still in protective custody.
This is just as the Sahara Reporters publication should have given more credibility to its report by equally publishing the names of the detained officers.
Coming out clean of the claims and counter claims of what the DHQ described as “spurious, false, malicious and misleading report aimed at causing unnecessary tension and mistrust among the populace” is what is needed to be done by the media and true position clarified by the military.
In another breadth, our youths who may be tempted to join the protest on Monday October 20 may be unwittingly participating in a surreptitious bid to prepare ground for military interregnum.
They need to ask questions on what plans Sowore and soldiers who may be lurking in the corners, have to solve the multifarious problems besetting the nation.
The fact that such is being systemically addressed through a structural reformation of our economic, military and governance style which is intended to make emergent leaders answer questions that will deepen dividends of democracy through a restructured polity for us to escape grinding poverty that has over the years compounded our underdevelopment is quite noticeable and must be given opportunity to evolve.
Talking of a military coup now is a crime not only against attempt to rebuild the nation but also a development that would dim the hope of unborn children who may not experience democracy should the military return to governance.
It should be the prayer of all well-meaning citizens that the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s prediction that upcoming generations may not know democracy will not come to pass.
