Had the alleged coup planned for October 1, this year been carried out, it would have been the sixth successful coup in Nigeria since the nation gained independence from British rule in 1960.
Beside the five successful coups, there are four other unsuccessful coups which were aborted in their various planning and execution stages since that period.
The denial of the alleged coup by the Defence Headquarters which had earlier issued a statement to the effect that sixteen officers are being detained and question for acts of indiscipline in the Army speaks volume of the inner workings of the military.
As I said last week in this column, out of any rumour, there is an iota of truth, hence the rather pre-emptive statement is a confirmation of the saying that there is no smoke without fire.
Ordinarily, discipline within the rank and file of any organisation is a function of its established inner workings. The claim of indiscipline which allegedly border on complaint on lack of promotion and stagnation within the forces by the Defence department shouldn’t be enough to detain officers if they’ve not embarked on other sinister motives which are grievous in the forces.
These are issues that could be resolved within the available internal administrative procedures and also not enough for court martial or outright suspicion of disloyalty which probably led to their being detained.
It is clear to all who are familiar with military establishment that loyalty is absolute and not negotiable.
It is either you’re 100% loyal or else mutual distrust sets in.
Since the advent of coup making in Nigeria, several officers and men have either been executed or shown the way out of the army.
Those not dismissed are either transferred to obscure postings or put under watch for a long period.
The experience of late Col Victor Banjo in 1966 after the first military coup who though not part of the executioners of the coup was put under suspension and detention by the late General JTU Aguiyi Ironsi until the war met him in the East speaks volumes of the inner scheming in the military just as the ostracisation of the late leader of the failed first coup, Major Kaduna Nzeogwu who like Banjo found himself fighting on the side of Biafra when the war broke out.
In the military, nobody whose loyalty is doubtful even if not found guilty ever gets his bearing back.
He or she is either eased out or sent into ‘Siberia’.
For such fellows, the centre cannot hold again when the cookie crumbles.
During the failed coup led by late Lt Col Buka Suka Dimka of February 13, 1976 apart from about 31 officers and men that were executed by firing squad after being found guilty, several others were either dismissed or retired from the forces.
The pattern has continued since then.
In 1988 or thereabouts after the failed or rather phantom coup against General Ibrahim Babangida, apart from his close friend, Maj General Mamman Vatsa, Musa Bitiyong and several others that were executed, others were either retired or sent to long prison sentences.
Same tradition continued when both late Shehu Yaradua and General Obasanjo were sentenced to death by the military tribunal set up by late General Sanni Abacha, several other officers got thrown out of the military and others retired.
It was only Abacha’s sudden death that saved both Obasanjo and Abacha’s deputy, Oladipo Diya, from death in two different occasions.
In the military and history of coups in Nigeria several officers and men trained with millions of naira overseas were shown the way out irrespective of money the country spent on them.
For a country that has suffered instability for the 39 years out of 65 years of independence, announcing a coup after stabilising the polity for 26 years since the birth of the Fourth Republic is a signal that Nigeria has not turned the corner.
This probably explained reason why the government may not give any further explanation except the excuses of maintaining discipline.
The subsequent actions by the military and change of service chiefs by President Bola Tinubu the target of the coupists attest to this fact.
The words of Olisa Agbakoba, foremost lawyer and right activist that Tinubu has done the needful by being decisive on changing the service chiefs even if it is two years after their appointment if it is to guarantee protection of government is instructive.
Most Nigerians who have seen the evils of military rule on the polity would not romance with the idea of another military rule.
Although, second military head of state and the man with the longest tenure, General Yakubu Gowon recently declared an end to coup early this year, his statement was borne out of optimism without considering the position of actors within and without the military who viewed the military establishment as the age-long alternate centre of power and political party.
Although the identity of the sixteen officers standing trial are allegedly mostly of Northern extraction, if it is true, speaks volume of the inherent politicization of the military and inability to divorce ethnic reasons from reason d’etre for the coup.
Could this confirm the notion that the Northern part of the country could not tolerate civilian government headed by Southerners?
Does it also confirm the notion that in Nigeria beside the two alternate political parties-military and politicians, exchanging rulership among themselves, the North political ruling elite within its own setting, always use its military wing to ‘terrorise’ or remove any Southerner in power not doing its wish.
It is on record that in spite of President Olusegun Obasanjo’s favouring the northern ruling political establishment which foisted him in 1999, was almost removed by the failed ‘coup’ attempt by Major Al-Mustapha, Abacha’s chief security officer.
Another fact which confirms the fear expressed above is that only one out of the five successful military coups since January 15, 1966 were led by Southerners, the remaining four successful coups-Gowon, Murtala, Buhari, Babangida, Sani Abacha were Northern inspired, led and motivated.
It was a clear struggle for power among Northern military ruling elite.
Another sign that a mass retirement in the military may follow appointment of General Olufemi Oluyede and others is that they all belong to lower 39, 40 and 41 courses year and those over whose head they were promoted will definitely be asked to retire in due course as the senior Generals, in the in the military tradition will not be comfortable taking instructions from their juniors.
In all about 70 officers will bow out in the Army in the coming weeks while 30 are in the Air Force and Navy. This is consistent with military tradition.
In essence, until the military in Nigeria is totally divorced from the lure of power and politicians who may not be far from encouraging them to take over when they lose out of power, the Nigerian military as a profession will continue to suffer cohesion and internal stability as its adventure into the country’s power struggle has done more harm to it than it ever imagined.
Furthermore, the disdain for military rule which has become old fashioned in Africa and the whole world, has gained more root and resentment in Nigeria.
Another successful military coup, may just be all what is needed to dismember the country and its far implication for Africa.
The Nigerian military and disgruntled politicians that may be using it to effect change of government as an alternative to the ballot box may not live to witness the consequences of its inordinate ambition when the chips are down.
