Consensus As APC’s Litmus Test Towards 2027
Since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999 and the first cycle election in 2023, the three previous Governors in Ogun State had been unable to determine their successors from Akinrogun Segun Osoba to Senator Gbenga Daniel and Senator Ibikunle Amosun.
About three years ago, in a discussion with a brother and confidant on who succeeds incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun, I made it abundantly clear that by my observations of the dynamics of Ogun power play, the incumbent too like his predecessors, will not be allowed to pick his successor. A very hot argument it was especially since he is a top stakeholder in Ogun politics and staunch advocate of Yewa for Governor since 2003.
I also expressed the view that if a Yewa candidate emerged from the ruling APC with the chance of producing the next Governor, only a Yewa man or woman can stop him or her.
Today, I pray such will not be the case.
In relation to the above, Governor Dapo Abiodun said as much last Monday while formally presenting the Senator representing Ogun West, Solomon Olamilekan Adeola aka Yayi, as the party’s Consensus Governorship Candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, in the state.
He referred to what he described as lack of cooperation as the hindrance for Ogun West’s ability to get one of its own elected in the last 50 years as Governor.
This time around, Abiodun, who confessed President Bola Tinubu’s interest in who picks the ticket, subtly confirmed the long-time belief that Yayi’s relocation to Ogun State four years ago is to fulfill the President’s move to have one of his core followers as Ogun Governor.
They’re right as he did same in Osun, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti after his Alliance for Democracy, AD, lost five of its states in 2003 to the then ruling PDP at the centre.
But then, how was Tinubu using Abiodun, a Governor not known to have a close relationship with Yayi able to sway other top stakeholders?
Before now, he is said to have penciled down six of his aides as the likely successor.
Abiodun also revealed Tinubu’s strategy in getting former Governor Osoba to his side. Osoba, a known supporter and promoter of Abiodun with former Vice President Yemi Osibajo in 2019, was also until now a supporter of rotation of power between Ogun East and Central.
Though not known to have openly supported the Egba l’okan Advocates-an elite Egba group rooting for Egba Governor in 2027 was said to have succumbed to Tinubu’s wish as a core loyalist of the President and one of his inner caucus of Yoruba Leaders out of Lagos state.
Abiodun also hinted of success of the stakeholders in getting the support of both Honourable Biodun Akinlade and Gboyega Isiaka, two Yewa front runners to the Yayi adoption which he claimed started six months ago.
But has Abiodun convinced both Senator Iyabo Anisulowo and Mrs Apampa, two strong women political influencers in Ogun West?
That remains a big question.
Has Chief Osoba also succeeded in getting the support of the Egba elite rooting for Ambassador Tunji Isola Sarafa.
The Egba elite leading the Egba l’okan group it was that organised a well-attended reception for Sarafa when he returned to the country after his recall from the United Kingdom in December 2023. About 45 notable and influential Egba sons donated millions to fund the welcome reception held in Abeokuta where the Egba l’okan movement took its root.
In a reaction to the decision to pick Yayi, Ambassador Isola Sarafa in a statement left a void when he said he is still consulting with stakeholders on APC’s decision on his next move.
He is yet to accept or pledge loyalty to Yayi’s adoption.
Will he defect to other parties before the window closed?
This is dependent on the decision of his supporters and backers.
This is even very interesting when other Ogun Central aspirants like Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and a former Central Bank Deputy Governor, Tunde Lemo, have accepted the party’s decision.
Tinubu and APC’s decision to give the ticket to only a popular and widely acceptable aspirant with a big financial war chest for the reason of control is instructive.
Since Tinubu himself was his own financier in 2023, it is reasonable he prefers a Governor in his ‘shadow’.
As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance and Appropriation, Senator Adeola with his influence has impacted several constituencies beyond his Ogun West with projects whose funding was derived from his Senate ranking position.
It is understandable why Abiodun himself with an eye in the Senate would bend towards Tinubu’s choice.
But does it mean the President will withdraw support from his friend, Senator Gbenga Daniel in his bid to return from Ogun East the constituency where Abiodun is aiming to climb to the Senate? Has a trade-off occurred between Tinubu, Daniel and Abiodun?
APC’s consensus is also at play in Oyo State where Senator Alli, who escaped Governor Seyi Makinde’s political ambush to install him as Oba in order to prevent his emergence as APC Oyo guber consensus candidate.
Consensus arrangements already worked in Osun State with the off-season election where former Governor Oyebanji has a blanket offer.
Same scenario is likely to play in Osun State, the local APC having shoved aside Senator Iyiola Omisore for another relatively unknown Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji-AMBO.
As for Kwara State, the political permutation is still on, while in Lagos State, visible signs portend Deputy Governor Kadir Hamzat likely to be the favorite of Chief Tajudeen Olusi’s Governing Advisory Council now receiving presentations from aspirants including one time Governor Akinwunmi Ambode.
But could Ambode be trusted considering the circumstances surrounding his rejection in a direct primary conducted in 2019?
Other aspirants are also warming up.
Same fate that will likely befall Ambode may also be the lot of Governor Siminalayi Fubara in Rivers State.
This will depend on his healing the wounds between him and Nyesom Wike, his godfather in Rivers.
The idea of consensus is not new in Nigeria’s politics as the late sage Obafemi Awolowo often expressed his preference for it during the Second Republic for reasons of party’s cohesion and stability.
But his attempt to have the late lawyer, Olusoji Odunjo, son of his friend and associate author of Yoruba series, Chief JF Odunjo, couldn’t work in 1979 as both Ogun East and Ogun West leaders insisted on electoral college primaries.
At the end of the day, Ogun West pitched tent with Ogun East and produced the late Bisi Onabanjo in the primaries.
But Onabanjo for political strategic reasons picked late Chief Sesan Soluade from Ogun Central as his Deputy.
Since then, Ogun West has struggled in vain to get the support of the two others to rule the state.
If Abiodun’s ‘wish’ comes to pass, Senator Adeola, described as ‘Ajele’ from Lagos by both Egba l’okan advocates and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, may be what the Yewa needed to rule Ogun State given the dominance of APC in Ogun politics.
If he wins, Adeola has to do things differently and change the narrative of Ogun’s underdevelopment amidst abundant resources.
He has no excuse to fail as it would mean those who refused to give Yewa the chance to rule Ogun may be right after all.
Interesting days lie ahead in the race towards 2027.
