By
Nze David N. Ugwu
Introduction – The Fencing Match in the Open
The headlines scream of confrontation: Dangote Refinery vs. NUPENG. On one side, Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, promising that his multi-billion-dollar refinery project will not cost a single worker his job. On the other side, NUPENG—the powerful National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers—raising alarm about the welfare of oil and gas workers, warning of threats to their security, wages, and dignity.
But beneath the carefully chosen words and the media blitz lies a far more complex reality. This is not simply about jobs. It is about power. It is about who controls Nigeria’s most strategic sector. It is about graft, political leverage, and the survival of entrenched interests who have thrived on decades of import dependence, subsidy scandals, and rent-seeking.
The battle is not just Dangote versus NUPENG. It is the battle for the soul of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, where the spoils are enormous, and the losers risk being written out of history.
The Refinery That Shook the Empire
Dangote Refinery is not just another industrial project. It is an existential threat to an entire ecosystem of vested interests. For decades, Nigeria—Africa’s largest oil producer—has scandalously imported most of its refined products. Billions of dollars in forex allocations, subsidies, and opaque contracts have lubricated the patronage machine that sustains political power.
Every litre of imported petrol has been a lifeline for rent-seekers: foreign traders, local middlemen, government officials, and union leaders who negotiate crumbs for workers while pocketing their share of the graft.
By promising to refine domestically at scale, Dangote is rewriting the rules of the game. If successful, his refinery could dismantle a shadow economy built around import licenses, inflated contracts, subsidy fraud, and foreign exchange racketeering. That is why the opposition to his project is louder below the headlines than above them
NUPENG’s Public Stance, Private Interests
NUPENG has presented its battle as one of defending workers’ rights. On the surface, it is a noble cause. Workers in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector have often been casualties of casualisation, poor welfare, and arbitrary layoffs. But the union’s fight with Dangote is not only about job security.
NUPENG, like many unions in Nigeria, is also a political force. Its leaders wield influence not only in the labour market but also in the corridors of power. By positioning itself against Dangote, NUPENG is reminding the government and private investors alike that no one operates in the sector without their blessing.
Privately, union leaders understand that a refinery that weakens Nigeria’s reliance on imports also weakens their negotiating leverage. Many of them have historically benefitted from the inefficiencies of the old order. Their power lies not only in mobilising workers but in being gatekeepers to a sector defined by chronic inefficiency.
The Politics of Control
At the heart of the Dangote-NUPENG showdown lies the question: Who controls Nigeria’s oil and gas sector?
For years, control has been shared between three centres of power:
- Government and Political Elites – who manipulate fuel subsidy budgets, forex allocations, and regulatory agencies to extract rent.
- Labour Unions (NUPENG and PENGASSAN) – who use strikes, protests, and threats of fuel scarcity to remind politicians that they cannot be ignored.
- Foreign and Local Middlemen – who corner contracts for refined product imports, pocketing billions through inflated deals.
Dangote’s refinery threatens to collapse this tripod. If he refines locally at scale, foreign middlemen lose relevance. If costs fall, subsidy fraud becomes harder to sustain. If supply stabilises, unions lose some of their ability to blackmail governments with strike threats.
This is why the battle is not just about jobs; it is about survival of entrenched power structures.
Graft and the Fuel Subsidy Ghost
No discussion of Nigeria’s oil and gas politics can ignore the elephant in the room: subsidy. For decades, fuel subsidy has been the single largest drain on government finances—and the single richest source of corruption. Trillions of naira have disappeared in the name of cushioning Nigerians from high fuel costs.
Yet subsidy was never truly about the poor. It was about a cartel of importers and their political patrons. Dangote’s refinery undermines this gravy train. If petrol is refined domestically, it becomes harder to sustain the fiction of astronomical landing costs that justify bloated subsidy claims.
Thus, the fight over Dangote’s refinery is also a fight over the survival of one of the most lucrative graft systems in modern Nigerian history. Beneath the rhetoric, many of those opposing the refinery are defending their last access to easy billions.
The State’s Dilemma
The Nigerian government is caught in a bind. On one hand, Dangote’s refinery is a national pride project: a symbol that Nigeria can finally refine its own crude, save forex, and potentially even export refined products. On the other hand, the refinery disrupts a carefully balanced patronage system that successive governments have used to maintain political stability.
The state cannot be seen openly opposing Dangote. But it also cannot ignore NUPENG and other vested interests. So, it plays a double game—supporting Dangote with rhetoric while quietly appeasing the unions and middlemen who fear extinction.
The result is the current fencing match: public posturing, private negotiations, and quiet sabotage.
The Workers and the People
Lost in this battle of titans are the ordinary workers and the Nigerian people. NUPENG claims to fight for workers, but history shows that Nigerian unions often compromise once their leaders secure personal deals. Dangote promises no job losses, but in an economy driven by efficiency, rationalisation is inevitable.
Meanwhile, the average Nigerian continues to queue for expensive petrol, pay higher transport fares, and suffer epileptic power supply. The politics of oil has always been played above their heads. Whether Dangote wins or NUPENG prevails, the poor remain spectators in a drama staged for the powerful.
Yet, the people are also the prize. Control of the oil sector is control of Nigeria’s economic heartbeat, and therefore control of political legitimacy. Whoever wins this battle shapes not just the industry, but the entire Nigerian economy.
Conclusion – Beyond Dangote vs. NUPENG
The battle between Dangote and NUPENG is merely the visible part of a deeper struggle. It is not a labour dispute, nor merely an industrial clash. It is the politics of control, power, and graft—unfolding in Nigeria’s most strategic sector.
This fight is about who dictates the terms of Nigeria’s energy future. It is about whether a private refinery can dismantle a system that has kept the country dependent, corrupt, and perpetually unstable.
Below the headlines, this is the battle for the soul of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. A battle where neither side is innocent, both sides have vested interests, and the Nigerian people stand to lose—unless governance finally transcends patronage and puts national interest above elite bargains.
The refinery may mark the beginning of industrial independence, or it may become another pawn in the endless chess game of Nigerian politics. Either way, the outcome of this battle will echo far beyond the gates of Lekki, deep into the heart of Nigeria’s future.
Nze David N. Ugwu is the Managing Consultant of Knowledge Research Consult. He could be reached at [email protected] or !2348037269333.
