By
Nze David N. Ugwu
Introduction – The System Is the Message
Since 2015, when the All-Progressives Congress (APC) rose to power on the promise of “Change,” Nigeria has witnessed alternating waves of hope and disillusionment. The party came to power amid public frustration with corruption, insecurity, and economic stagnation. Yet, a decade later, many Nigerians feel that the political and economic system remains as fragile as ever—perhaps even weaker.
A weak system does not simply mean poor leadership. It describes a structural decay where institutions are politicized, economic productivity is stifled, and the social contract between citizens and the state is broken. In such systems, reforms rarely last, politics becomes transactional, and public trust erodes.
As the country struggles with inflation, insecurity, corruption, and institutional malaise, the question looms: what are the indicators of a weak political and economic system, and how can Nigeria turn the tide?
Indicator One – Institutional Fragility and Political Capture
One of the clearest signs of weakness in Nigeria’s system is the fragility of institutions. Since 2015, the independence of key public institutions—such as the anti-corruption agencies, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the electoral commission—has come under growing scrutiny.
The suspension of CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele in 2023 and the controversy over his alleged political involvement highlight how institutions can become entangled in partisan politics. Similarly, the INEC’s conduct during the 2023 general elections, marred by logistical lapses and credibility questions, eroded public confidence in democratic processes.
When institutions serve political masters rather than constitutional mandates, governance becomes personalized. The National Assembly’s subservience to executive influence, and the judiciary’s inconsistent verdicts, further reveal the depth of institutional weakness.
Strong nations are built on rule-based institutions; weak ones depend on powerful individuals. Nigeria’s post-2015 trajectory shows that while leadership changes, institutional fragility remains a constant.
Indicator Two – Economic Overdependence and Policy Confusion
Nigeria’s economic fragility is rooted in its overdependence on oil and the failure to diversify meaningfully since 2015. When global oil prices crashed in 2016, the economy slipped into its first recession in 25 years. Despite government rhetoric about diversification, oil still accounts for more than 85% of export earnings, while agriculture and manufacturing remain underdeveloped.
The naira crisis of 2023–2024, with inflation soaring above 30%, further exposed policy incoherence. The decision to float the naira, remove fuel subsidies, and unify exchange rates—though economically logical in theory—was implemented without a robust safety net. The result: skyrocketing living costs, business closures, and rising unemployment.
The economic system appears reactive rather than strategic—governed by short-term political considerations rather than long-term transformation. As long as the economy remains dependent on oil rents and consumption imports, the cycle of fragility will persist.
Indicator Three – Collapse of Public Trust and Democratic Legitimacy
Public trust is the oxygen of democracy. Since 2015, Nigerians have grown increasingly skeptical of government promises. The EndSARS protests of 2020 were not just about police brutality—they were a cry against a political system that feels unresponsive, unjust, and unaccountable.
Voter turnout in the 2023 general elections was the lowest since 1999, reflecting a growing disillusionment with politics. Citizens increasingly view elections as elite contests rather than instruments of public will.
The disconnect is further amplified by inconsistent policy communication, opaque governance, and the absence of genuine accountability. When citizens feel unheard, democracy becomes hollow—a ritual without meaning.
A political system begins to decay the moment citizens lose faith in its fairness. Nigeria’s legitimacy crisis is thus both a symptom and a cause of systemic weakness.
Indicator Four – Corruption, Patronage, and the Political Economy of Survival
Corruption remains the single most corrosive factor in Nigeria’s governance. Despite multiple anti-corruption agencies, no major political figure has been successfully prosecuted and convicted for large-scale corruption since 2015.
The Dasuki arms deal scandal, the siphoning of COVID-19 intervention funds, and the alleged looting of humanitarian relief funds by top officials reveal a disturbing continuity in the misuse of public resources. Even the fuel subsidy regime, which the APC government pledged to dismantle, was riddled with fraud and opaque accounting until its 2023 removal.
This corruption is not random—it is structural. Nigeria operates what political economists call a “patrimonial rentier system”, where public resources are distributed as political rewards rather than invested in development.
Until governance shifts from patronage to performance, no anti-corruption campaign will yield sustainable results.
Indicator Five – Policy Incoherence and the Absence of Strategic Continuity
Every new administration in Nigeria tends to discard its predecessor’s reforms. The Buhari government abandoned many initiatives of the Jonathan era, while the Tinubu administration has restructured or reversed several Buhari-era programs.
For instance, the Nigerian Air project, Anchor Borrowers Programme, and several industrialization blueprints were either discontinued or mired in controversy. The lack of policy continuity discourages investors and breeds inefficiency within the civil service.
Equally damaging is short-termism—governing for political optics rather than long-term national planning. Grand economic roadmaps, such as the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) or the National Development Plan 2021–2025, often end as documents on paper.
A strong system requires institutionalized policy frameworks—where strategies transcend administrations and are monitored by technocratic bodies insulated from politics.
Indicator Six – Weak Rule of Law and Inconsistent Justice
The rule of law has deteriorated sharply since 2015. Arbitrary detentions, selective prosecutions, and disregard for court orders have undermined the judiciary’s authority.
The detention of #RevolutionNow activist Omoyele Sowore, the prolonged incarceration of Nnamdi Kanu, and the use of executive orders to bypass due process exemplify the erosion of legal norms.
Corruption within the judiciary—ranging from case delays to influence peddling—further weakens justice delivery. The rule of law cannot coexist with impunity. When the powerful act above the law and the poor are punished without recourse, the system is not just weak—it is unjust.
The judiciary must reclaim its moral and institutional independence if Nigeria is to rebuild credibility in governance.
Indicator Seven – Rising Poverty, Inequality, and Social Exclusion
Despite Nigeria’s natural wealth, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that over 133 million Nigerians are multidimensionally poor. This staggering figure exposes the disconnect between macroeconomic statistics and human welfare.
The removal of fuel subsidies and currency reforms, without adequate cushioning, have deepened hardship for millions. The middle class has thinned, while youth unemployment remains above 40%.
Regional disparities also persist—poverty rates are highest in the North-West and North-East, where insecurity and weak education systems hinder development. The consequence is social frustration, migration, and vulnerability to radicalization.
An economy that cannot deliver social mobility or equity cannot sustain democracy. Inequality is not only unjust—it is destabilizing.
Indicator Eight – Insecurity and State Loss of Control
Insecurity remains Nigeria’s most visible symptom of systemic failure. Since 2015, the Boko Haram insurgency has evolved into a broader network of banditry, kidnapping, and farmer-herder conflicts that now affect nearly every region.
The Northwest bandit crisis, Southeast secessionist violence, and Middle Belt communal clashes show that the state is struggling to maintain a monopoly on violence. Police and military overstretch, poor intelligence coordination, and inadequate welfare for security personnel have compounded the problem.
When citizens must rely on vigilantes or ethnic militias for safety, the state’s legitimacy is in question. Security is not just about military might—it is about governance, justice, and inclusive development.
Turning the Corner – Frameworks for Renewal
Nigeria’s systemic weaknesses are not irreversible. Turning the corner requires institutional, economic, and social renewal grounded in deliberate frameworks:
- Institutional Rebuilding and Autonomy
Reform must begin with strengthening institutional independence—from INEC to the judiciary and anti-corruption agencies. Appointments should be merit-based, not partisan. The National Assembly must assert genuine oversight rather than act as an extension of the executive.
- Economic Diversification and Industrial Policy
Nigeria must shift from consumption to production. Investments in agro-industrial value chains, renewable energy, and digital innovation can generate jobs and reduce import dependence. Fiscal policy should reward productivity, not rent-seeking.
- Policy Continuity Framework
Establish a National Policy Implementation Council—comprising technocrats, legislators, and private sector representatives—to ensure continuity across administrations. Long-term plans should be legally binding and insulated from political disruption.
- Rule of Law and Judicial Reform
Judicial independence must be constitutionally reinforced. Fast-track courts for corruption and commercial cases should be established, while digital case management can reduce delays.
- Inclusive Governance and Decentralization
Decentralizing power—politically and fiscally—can make governance more responsive. True federalism allows states to innovate economically, compete fairly, and reduce overdependence on the center.
- Social Investment and Human Capital
Rebuilding the system also means investing in people. Education, healthcare, and youth skills programs should receive priority funding. Inclusive growth is the only sustainable security strategy.
Conclusion – Building Strength from Weakness
Nigeria’s political and economic weaknesses did not emerge overnight, and they will not vanish overnight. But acknowledgment is the first step toward transformation.
A strong system is not defined by slogans, but by institutions that outlive individuals, policies that transcend politics, and citizens who demand accountability.
The time has come to rebuild not just the economy, but the moral and institutional foundations of governance. Without that, “change” will remain a campaign slogan—not a national reality.
Nze David N. Ugwu is the Managing Consultant of Knowledge Research Consult. He could be reached at [email protected] or !2348037269333.