Three significant events and declaration of intent occurred in Nigeria during the last one week.
In the first instance, the permission and declaration of President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly to commence the process of amending the obnoxious 1999 constitution to give room to states that wanted to establish state police is significant.
In another breadth, his charge to state Governors to revive all approaches to protect and preserve their territory is also another bold move aimed at undoing the Unitary arrangement hoisted on us in 1966 by the late Aguiyi-Ironsi Unification Decree 34 which killed in one fell swoop the basis of our existence as a Country.
This is in spite of our ability to manage our differing tongues and tribe.
The meeting of the South West Governors on Monday a day before President Tinubu made his statement asking all regions to protect themselves is instructive.
It is because, for a region which has for decades champion the need for restructuring the polity.
In other words, the self -inflicted insecurity in the North, now spreading to the South has provided the needed impetus for the region to return to the drawing board to save it from terrorists and revisionist determined to conquer the rest of the country.
The resolve by the Governors to establish a Trust Fund to pool resources together is also a calculated move to checkmate the terrorist and ever protect the region though procurement of modern weapons.
The significance of this development coming at a time when President Bola Tinubu inaugurated the South West Development Commission, SWDC is a strong message that the country as things stand today, is moving steadily towards returning to regional arrangement as was in the first republic both for development but more importantly for protection against the terrorist now seen more as an agenda by the Northern political class to reintroduce its dominance over the entire country via the Unitary system which has kept it in power over the years.
The one-day summit of the South West Governors is also better seen as a move by the political and Traditional institutions in the region to stop the Northern hegemonic ruling class in its track to continue its retrogressive domination of the country.
However, the strongest signal that the country may not be the same again was sent on Wednesday when the seventeen Southern Governors at its meeting with Traditional rulers in the region also decided to pool funds together to tackle insecurity using sharing of technology, security apparatus and other means.
This to me is a clear indication that beyond politics, the Southern region has decided to act as one block at least to preserve its sovereignty and prevent the terrorists from the North who are clearly acting on a political script to overrun the entire Southern region to fulfill its leaders age- long desire to dip the Koran inside the sea.
The desire by the Southern Governors which meeting during the tenure of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was stopped by the latter, is also seen as a strong message that the South is beginning to see the North as an obstacle to its development just as it is to the nation’s growth.
With the active connivance of the political and traditional ruling class of the North to the pervasive insecurity nationwide, the South seems to be saying Enough is enough.
Again, the decision of the Southern Governors coming at a time when most of the states in the region with the exception of Abia, Rivers(already crippled PDP leadership) Ebonyi, it is not impossible that the region will throw its weight behind return to regional structure if that is the antidote to its subjugation by the rampaging Terrorists and bandits from the North seen as a camouflage by its political elite to truncate democracy especially with a Southern president in power and return Nigeria to the status quo.
Just towards end of last week, Ooni of Ife, Oba Ogunwusi, Ojaja 2, spoke of moves by traditional rulers in the South West to use all traditional means at its disposal in collaboration with the six state governments to halt the rampaging terrorists bent on overrunning the South West.
The South west share its border with Kwara and Kogi State already under severe terrorist attacks.
It is becoming abundantly clear that most of the Governors cum spiritual and traditional leaders in the North are surreptitiously throwing their weight behind terrorists for selfish economic and hegemonic gains having seen the economic policies of the Federal Government against their collective interest.
For a ruling class that has profited from illegal mining of mineral resources in the region without remitting same to federal coffers, stoppage of same by President Tinubu through the Mines and Resources Ministry, is seen as a challenge and afront to their selfish personal interests.
The declaration by Sheikh Abubakar Gumi-regarded as chief negotiator of kidnappers, bandits and terrorists, that the Federal Government should pay money to criminals, is a message from the ruling political and Traditional class in the North.
Also, coming at a time when the United States has embraced a dialogue and initiate support to the Federal Government to fight terrorism and religious killings is a sign to the Northern ruling elite that the time is up.
The rapprochement by the United States to enter into collaborative military and resources support for the Nigerian government to fight terrorism is a win- win sort for the loathed Tinubu government, at least from the standpoint of North- South dichotomy.
It is apparent that while the Northern ruling elite and traditional class are against United States military invasion as it will weaken its advantage over the South since most military equipment and personnel are of Northern extraction, collaboration is seen by them as an advantage by the Tinubu government to remain in power until 2031.
In other words, while the North prefer democracy they are against the South in power for so long especially with a decisive and bold President like Tinubu in power.
Another source of silent anger of the Norths hegemonic establishment against Tinubu is his not too recent decision to decentralize the Armed forces by citing military institutions in all the six geo political zones against practise by successive governments to situate the headquarters of all the military institutions in the North especially Kaduna, its political capital which until now has 19 military institutions-both infantry and training.
Though, strategically this is wrong for a nation of 220 million, the Northern establishment did so for advantage to maintain stranglehold on the South.
With the decentralization of Army, Airforce, Aviation training, Naval institutions and military bases in the six geo political zones, this is seen as a deliberate move by Tinubu to achieve a balance of power between all the six zones in the country.
Today, Nigeria with a population of 220 million, has approximately 223,000 active military personnel, with a breakdown of about 180,000 in the Army, 18,000 in the Air Force, and 25,000 in the Navy.
Some sources also include paramilitary forces, bringing the total manpower to around 280,000, which includes an estimated 50,000 paramilitary personnel in 2025.
It has a breakdown as follows:
Active Personnel: 223,000
Army: 180,000
Air Force: 18,000
Navy: 25,000
Paramilitary Personnel: 50,000 (2025 estimate)
Reserve Personnel: 80,000 (CIA World Factbook estimate).
With the above, it is doubtful whether Tinubu will not accept the strategic collaboration with the United States to end Terrorism, achieve relative stability, at least to enable the nation prepare for election in 2027 which the Norths elite class do not want.
Their anger is notably informed by the fractionalisation of main opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the limping African Democratic Congress, ADC led by Abubakar Atiku which to them lacks the capacity to defeat Tinubu in 2027.
As things stand today, the level of our capacity to defeat the terrorist is doubtful just as the efficiency of the military already compromised by former President Muhammadu Buhari who ordered enlistment of ‘repentant’ Boko Harm’ militants into our military institutions.
With the failed military coup in which most of those officers arrested are of Northern extraction, the failure of terrorism via banditry and kidnapping will be a lost to the North.
For a nation just about to turn the bend in its efforts to stabilize the economy, further disruption of the landscape through banditry, kidnapping and terrorism allegedly enjoying tacit support of the Northern establishment may drive the country further down to ethnic conclave which with the establishment of Regional Commissions may lay a foundation for each of the regions withdrawing to its conclave.
Time will tell.
TUNDE ABATAN IS PUBLISHER NEWDAWNNGR.COM…[email protected]
