Why Nigeria Urgently Needs A National Census Before The 2027 Elections

By

Nze David N. Ugwu

The Population Puzzle

At the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, Nigeria’s Vice President announced that the country’s population now stands at an estimated 240 million people. This figure—staggering in its magnitude—places Nigeria firmly as Africa’s most populous nation and one of the world’s demographic giants.

Yet, behind this projection lies a worrying reality: Nigeria has not conducted a population census since 2006. Nineteen years have passed since the last official enumeration, which recorded 140.5 million citizens. If the Vice President’s projection is correct, then Nigeria’s population has grown by 97 million people in less than two decades—equivalent to adding more than the entire population of Egypt.

This vast demographic shift is not just a statistic; it has profound implications for governance, planning, and democracy. With general elections scheduled for 2027, the absence of reliable and up-to-date population data threatens to undermine fair representation, equitable distribution of resources, and effective development planning.

Why Census Matters

A population census is more than just counting people. It is the foundation for national planning, policy formulation, and governance. For a country like Nigeria, struggling with rapid urbanization, widespread poverty, and significant security challenges, knowing who lives where, and in what numbers, is essential.

Accurate population figures are crucial for:

• Resource allocation – Federal and state governments distribute revenue based on population. Without updated figures, allocation becomes skewed, leading to unfairness and regional discontent.
• Infrastructure planning – Schools, hospitals, housing, and transport systems must be built for actual numbers, not guesses.
• Electoral representation – Constituencies are demarcated based on population data. Using outdated figures means that some Nigerians are over-represented while others are marginalized.
• Public services – From healthcare to social welfare, population data underpins government capacity to serve citizens effectively.

A census is, therefore, a mirror of the nation—one that must be updated regularly if governance is to remain effective.

The Dangers of Operating Without Data

For nearly two decades, Nigeria has operated in the dark, relying on estimates, projections, and assumptions. While international organizations like the UN and World Bank provide population projections, these are statistical models, not actual counts.

The dangers of working with projections are clear:

1. Misallocation of resources – A state that is undercounted may receive far less revenue than it deserves, while another with inflated projections may enjoy undue advantage.
2. Planning blind spots – Urban centers like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano may be hosting millions more than the last census recorded, straining infrastructure and creating social problems.
3. Security implications – Population distribution affects internal security planning, border control, and counter-insurgency strategies.
4. Electoral inequity – Without an updated census, constituency delineation remains based on obsolete figures from 2006, undermining Nigeria’s democratic principles.

Operating without accurate data is akin to flying a plane without navigation instruments: dangerous and unsustainable.

Population Growth and Its Implications

Nigeria’s population growth of 97 million in 19 years is both a demographic marvel and a policy nightmare. Every year, the country adds about 5 million people—roughly the population of Liberia.

This growth raises urgent questions:

• How many of these new citizens are children who need schools?
• How many are youth entering the labor market?
• How many live in rural versus urban areas?
• How many need access to electricity, water, and healthcare?

Without answers, Nigeria’s ability to plan for food security, education, employment, and urban development remains crippled.

The 2027 Elections and the Census Question

The 2027 general elections are looming. By law and democratic principle, electoral constituencies should reflect population realities. Yet, Nigeria risks going into another election using 2006-based population figures.

This means:

• Some states and constituencies may be under-represented, diluting the votes of millions.
• Others may be over-represented, giving undue political advantage.
• Electoral credibility may be questioned, with political parties challenging the fairness of representation.

A new census before 2027 is therefore not just desirable—it is indispensable for electoral legitimacy. Without it, the elections risk being seen as built on outdated and unfair demographic assumptions.

Continuous Census – A Modern Imperative

The world is moving beyond decennial censuses. Many countries now adopt continuous population registration systems, integrating census data with digital identity, birth and death registration, and migration records.

For Nigeria, a system of continuous census or population updating would ensure:

• Real-time demographic data for planning.
• Reduced cost compared to conducting large-scale censuses every 10–20 years.
• Integration with the National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) for more accurate records.
• Better preparedness for elections, emergencies, and social policy.

A continuous census approach would also allow Nigeria to keep pace with its fast-moving demographic changes, avoiding the situation of waiting nearly two decades for new figures.

Economic and Development Planning

No serious development plan can succeed without accurate demographic data. Nigeria has repeatedly launched ambitious plans—Vision 20:2020, the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, and now Agenda 2050. Yet, the success of these blueprints is undermined by weak population data.

• Education planning: How many children are of school age, and where are they located?
• Healthcare delivery: How many mothers need maternal health services? How many elderly need care?
• Urban growth: How many people will live in Lagos, Kano, or Port Harcourt in five years?
• Agriculture and food security: How much food is needed annually to feed Nigerians?

Without census data, these questions remain unanswered, leaving planners to guess. Guesswork cannot build a modern nation.

Learning from Other Countries

Other countries have shown the value of regular and accurate censuses:

• India, with over 1.4 billion people, conducts a census every 10 years and integrates it with Aadhaar (national identity).
• Brazil uses census data to plan housing and education in its fast-growing urban centers.
• South Africa conducts regular censuses and community surveys, ensuring updated statistics.

Nigeria, as Africa’s largest country, cannot afford to lag behind. If smaller nations can maintain census accuracy, Nigeria—with its vast resources and urgent needs—must do the same.

Conclusion – Counting People to Make People Count

The Vice President’s declaration of 240 million Nigerians is a stark reminder of the urgency of the moment. Nigeria is a demographic powerhouse, but power without knowledge is weakness.

Without a new census, Nigeria cannot plan effectively, cannot allocate resources fairly, and cannot conduct credible elections. The 2027 elections present a critical deadline: Nigeria must not go into them blind.

More importantly, the country must embrace a culture of continuous population enumeration—not once every 19 years, but as an ongoing national commitment.

In governance, what gets measured gets managed. For Nigeria, the message is clear: to govern its people, it must first count them.

Nze David N. Ugwu is the Managing Consultant of Knowledge Research Consult. He could be reached at [email protected] or !2348037269333.