Interesting times and season will never cease from our body polity.
It is simply a reflection of our nature,who we are, and the reasons for the age- long dysynfunction in our system.
For now, the once powerful, strong and almost invisible leading opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party,PDP, is going through its worst crisis.
In actual fact, to say that the party is gasping for breadth is an understatement.
The party is in the throes of death just as those few principled leaders who still clings to it like siamese twins are like a woman in the labour room undergoing a delicate ceaserian section with a 50-50 survival chance.
In the past few days, PDP’S survival has been threatened such that the fate of its remaining loyal members remain hanging in the balance.
For the veteran office seekers in the party like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, his exist from the party to a coalition he championed with his poster- boy, former Kaduna state governor, Nasir El Rufai is gradually being emasculated by the military politicians led by former Senate President,David Mark .
Mark’s record of anti- democratic activities dates back to the annulment of the June 12 1993 presidential elections.
That he later emerged as Senate President for two terms portray the deficiencies in our politics.
You can imagine what fate a party like newly found ADC will face when such a man mounts its leadership.
ADC’s fate is further dimmed by Atiku’s partnership with Mark as his new recruit and possibly a leading advocate of his bid to emerge the presidential candidate of the party.
This new move is coming after doors of the Social Democratic Party,SDP, has been shut on predatory merchants from PDP struggling to use its platform not to further its goals but to realise their age- long ambitions to get power.
Evans Ufeli,a lawyer, said as much recently in a TVC interview that Atiku, like many others are just using the ADC as a platform to realize their ambition.
As former Sokoto Governor Aminu Tambuwal declared,” we haven’t left PDP but merely using ADC to get power.We are still in PDP”.
If this is true, is it legally justifiable to straddle between two parties before and during the process leading to election ?
This declaration by Tambuwal is in line with Ufelis belief that, “Atiku will do everything such that he emerged the candidate of ADC. ”
“Since in every negotiation, he is always working towards putting himself forward as the Presidential candidate.”
But the question is,could he win all the time as he has done in the past with defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, APC and later PDP.
Tambuwal it will be recalled stepped down for Atiku in 2023, is he ready to do same in 2027.?
If he does,will the equation in PDP remain same.?
Can Atiku and all protagonists of Coalition in PDP get all its leaders to embrace ADC with Atiku as the arrow head and presidential candidate?
It is quite clear now as crystal ball with the events of the past one week among the die -hard democrats in the PDP, Atiku may have to contend with the likes of Bode George from the South West who is not only averse to the party joining the coalition but against the Presidency moving to the North.
He has told Atiku that severally in public and it is not certain whether the former Deputy National Chairman has changed his position that the Presidency will remain in the South till 2031.
Though not a supporter of Tinubu,George is an advocate of rotation of Presidency.
He has the support of the likes of Oyo state Governor, Seyi Makinde.
As for Makinde,he may not be particularly serious about Presidency in 2027 as is being rumoured, he is definitely not a fan of Atiku and may not be far from the influence of George.
As somebody who is keen on retaining his relevance after completing his second term as Oyo Governor in 2027, jumping ship to the ADC may not be an option for him.
Except,Osun Governor Ademola Adeleke decides to stay in same political boat with former governor, Rauf Aregbesola, his choices in 2027 will be determined after next year’s governorship poll in Osun state.
Peter Obis Dillema:
Also in the same boat of uncertainty is Peter Obi who used the Labour Party,LP, platform and youths to garner 6 million votes in 2023.
He is now caught in the thicket of fractionalized LP with his Obidient followers threatening fire and brimstone should he jump- ship back to PDP or rather ADC to play a second fiddle.
His pledge of one term may simply be a ‘banana peel’ should he jump into the ADC presidential primary and fall into Atiku’s equally one-term trick.
Like the duo, Rotimi Amaechi,former Transport Minister has also dangled the one -term carrot.
Another dillema before Obi is how to manage his failure to get presidential ticket and retaining his Obedient followers who appears to be more ideologically inclined than him.
Yet,he also has to face a rancorous Julius Abure of LP and other factions of the party that has become more disunited unlike what it was in 2023.
For Abure’s faction, their ploy and eagerness to see Obi’s back through their ultimatum to him to resign from the party last week could not be brushed aside.
This position is probably informed by the decision to refocus the party; make it more workers inclined and win back confidence of its proletariat class in the middle income camp for greater electoral gain if not now but in future elections.
Still on Amaechi,like Abubakar Malami,Rauf Aregbesola,he is probably facing the greatest test of his political battle not only in the coalition but in his native Rivers state where schism within the APC in the state has enabled his political foe FCT Minister, Nyesome Wike, to further diminish his influence and whatever grip he has in the state.
With allegations of corruption running into billions of naira through his wife’s activities in the NDDC leveled by Wike of which he is yet to respond,it is doubtful his ambition in ADC can fly.
Since all politics is local and a game of numbers, it remains to be seen if the gladiators and frontline leaders in ADC can translate their visibility in the public into followership in their states.
Both Aregbesola,Amaechi,Malami,Nasir El Rufai has a daunting task reigning -in followers in their states with the dynamism of the politics of the day.
How they will convert the followers and party structures in their various parties to the ADC vehicle remains the biggest test of their electoral value and relevance since a day is too long in politics.
There is no doubt that developments in the next few months in the country will pose a challenge not only to the ruling APC now under pressure to ease economic burdens of its policies on the people, but also for the confused opposition who sought to adopt the APC style anchored by Wike and his gang of five governors to disorganize and defeat the PDP in 2023.
Time will Tell.
