Ibadan Declaration Explosion
Ibadan, the erstwhile political capital of the old Western Region have always played prominent roles in the evolution of party politics in Nigeria.
Not only has it emerged as the pivot of development initiatives which set the pace for other regions, it also played a decisive role at any point in our political evolution which often resulted in violent clashes over fundamental disagreement between contending powers.
For instance, it was in Ibadan that the crisis which resulted in conflagration that consumed the region and by extension the entire nation that eventually terminated civil rule in 1966 six years after independence was ignited.
Since then, the Ibadan experience and scenario, has always been referred to as the potential flashing point whenever political disagreement occurred between the established political establishment in the region and other vested interests determined to conquer the region.
They are often reminded to avoid the Wild, Wild, West.
In spite of the ugly experience leaders often use Ibadan as base for plots to capture power in the region seen as the stabilising factor in Nigeria’s polity.
Political players always try to use Ibadan scenario as example to capture power and source of plotting intrigues for political relevance.
However, it appears Ibadan and by extension Western region founding fathers are now kicking in their graves that never again will the cosmopolitan capital of Western Region be used to as canon fodder to reverse history and in essence undo its development.
It is against this background that events of the past one week in the country’s political landscape makes the Ibadan issue more intriguing.
Leaders of the opposition political parties who gathered in the ancient capital penultimate Saturday April 25, promised and swore to high to high heavens that the gathering which included former President Olusegun Obasanjo would berth the adoption of single presidential candidate by all the parties present to wrestle power from the President Bola Tinubu led APC.
Ironically, hardly had the declaration been made that various disparage political parties who attended the Summit began separate and personal moves to undermine their collective promise supposedly freely made.
In view of the new developments between and among contending forces in the parties, does it mean Governor Seyi Makinde who hosted the now illegal Peoples Democratic party’s, PDP, last convention in December 2025 has lost touch with practical reality of emergent politics and is unwittingly using his naivety to undermine Ibadan’s significance?
It means in reality that the illegal convention which produced the Saminu Turaki outlawed national exco has only succeeded in further widening the gap in the PDP and by inference allowed its poison chalice to undermine the Summit declarations since events have shown that their high sounding pledges and communiqué of unity ended in the pages of the paper it was written before it could germinate.
Why is it that the supposed acclaimed popularity and acceptability of the last man standing Governor of PDP, Makinde, has been consumed in mistakes and miscalculations he made of late?
Does it not portend that Ibadan has chosen to wean itself of being labelled the perennial boiling pot of instability in the region and by extension the nation.
Does it also mean that the seven years of supposed good governance by Makinde has been sacrificed on the later of miscalculated moves and or wrong political assumptions?
Since in politics unlike economics, all other things are not always equal, the political misteps he made has further enabled him to dig in further in reversing his acclaimed popularity with the people.
If Ibadan summit declarations has kicked the dust before it commences, is it an indication and confirmation that like last year’s PDP convention dubbed by observers as ‘Christmas Carol’ by the fate that befell it, the recent April political Summit also qualified to be referred to as Easter jamboree of declaration full of emotions without fury?
In another breadth, with the unfolding decision of the duo of Kwankwaso and Peter Obi on one hand and Adamu Mohammed on the other hand plotting to move to Seriake Dickson’s NDP and Allied Progressives Movement, APM respectively is a signal that Abubakar Atiku’s faction of the NDC is left alone to struggle with itself in ADC.
In fact, Peter Obi’s statement citing worsening internal crises within the party and broader national challenges as reason for his jumping boat is a clear signal that the opposition politicians lack the capacity and nerve to forge a common front to fight the ruling government.
Though, he is yet to reveal his next move, that will be within the next few days before the window for submission of party’s membership list closes as per INECs regulation.
Today, Rotimi Amaechi who spoke glowingly of his ‘sterling’ qualities to get the ADC presidential ticket is also visibly running away from the stranglehold of Atiku/Mark faction of the party.
Are they all convinced that obstacles of leadership affirmation in ADC, which the Supreme Court referred to the High Court to settle, is another booby trap on the path of ADC?
It is obvious that everybody that matters is either running away from the house hurriedly hijacked when the PDP boat sank, because of the legal booby traps on its unity or Atiku’s larger than life image and stranglehold which position him only as the man to beat in presidential primary.
In other words, the ADC house like the PDP ‘rebels’ which berthed it, may end producing three candidates in the ADC, NDC and APM to defeat a sitting president which the combined strength of PDP and Obis Labour Party’s Obidient movement could not do in 2023.
From the foregoing, it is apparent that a five -cornered presidential election is almost apparent next January.
In other words, the two parties which gave the APC run for its money in 2023- the PDP and Labour, has now been scattered into at least four political parties all working at cross purposes to defeat a ruling government waxing stronger by the day.
From the foregoing, the Ibadan declaration has only fuelled emotions without the fury to back it up.
It only shows that the ADC possession as a Special Purpose Vehicle, SPV by the ‘rebels ‘ in PDP is being destroyed by the centrifugal forces that set it up.
In Yoruba culture, there is a saying , “Rikisi PA won po, won dore, koto ojo, ko to osu, ore baje;” meaning “Rebellion joined them together but within days and months, rebellion scattered them.”
Thus, rather than accepting the negative appellation of Wild, Wild, West as a fait accompli, Ibadan has turned out to be a city for adopting wise calculating political moves which has thwarted those who wanted to make the Yoruba people and region a burial ground of reasoning and progressive politics thereby shedding its toga of brigandage.
It has resolved to learn from mistakes of the past but instead pursue progressivism in tactical moves devoid of sorrow, tears and blood which Makinde’s reinvention of ‘Operation Wetie’ portends.
Ibadan declaration has led to explosion of those who wish to turn it into land of “despoilation.”
The next one week will definitely be a defining moment for political horse traders and bargainers in the country.
