Peter Obi Left ADC And So What? Let’s Do The Maths
By
Kayode Jacobs
DESPITE OBI’S DEFECTION , ADC COALITION STILL ON TRACK TO WIN 2027 ELECTION – FAVOURED BY PROVEN POLITICAL MATHEMATICS AND ALIGNMENT
We at the One ADC Movement, Lagos, and the ADC Reformers acknowledge the recent developments within the coalition, particularly the movement of certain leaders to another platform. While such changes may appear significant, it is important that we assess them with clarity and perspective.
Some of these alignments are relatively recent, and while influential, they do not define the foundation or future of our movement.
Let us not lose sight of the broader reality:
A substantial and resilient political base across the country remains firmly within the ADC coalition;
Key leaders and stakeholders, including those with deep national reach, continue to engage and align;
Growing dissatisfaction within the ruling structure is still translating into quiet but meaningful support for our cause.
When viewed through simple political arithmetic, the path remains clear:
ADC still stands as a viable and formidable platform capable of challenging and defeating the incumbent.
This is not a moment for uncertainty, it is a moment for steadiness.
Movements are tested by change, but they are sustained by structure, conviction, and collective resolve. Our case is not different!
Let’s look at the numbers calmly and clearly.
In 2023:
Atiku Abubakar — 6.98M votes
Peter Obi + Rabiu Kwankwaso — 7.6M votes combined
That’s just about 600,000 votes more than Atiku alone.
Meaning:
The difference between them was not dominance, it was fragmentation.
Had Obi and Kwakwanso not defected, it would have been a free run against the incumbent who got only 8.79 million votes without his current performance baggage.
Now consider this:
A significant share (over 60%) of Bola Tinubu’s votes came from the North, about 5 million votes out of his total 8.79 million votes)
The support that generated the votes was built on an existing structure that is mostly of Muhammadu Buhari;
Today, credible elements from that same northern base, alongside other strong leaders nationwide, are firmly with the ADC coalition.
The equation is that greater proportion of the 5 million votes now safely sits with ADC, hence, the political hounding by the ruling Party.
This is a major shift in the political equation.
So even with recent defections, the reality remains:
*The numbers still favour the ADC coalition.*
What we need is not new strength, but stronger alignment and unflinching commitment.
The coalition still retains a strong national base;
Significant northern support that once powered victories for APC is now firmly aligned with the Coalition
Influential leaders across regions continue to engage and strengthen the coalition
The heavy political war chest of Hon. Rotimi Amaechi that almost got him the APC Presidential Ticket is also being downplayed by those who don’t know.
The numbers have not disappeared, only the alignment is being tested,
We are still on track.
We are still very strong and reliable
And together as we are today, we are firmly positioned to win.
Let’s stay focused. Let’s stay together and keep our eyes on the ballot.
PASTOR KAYODE JACOBS WRITES FROM ONE ADC MOVEMENT AND ADC REFORMERS
