Aregbesola Should Bow Out Now: A National Secretary Who Cannot Win His Polling Unit Cannot Lead ADC to 2027
The outcome of the Osun governorship election has placed Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola before a political reality that can no longer be explained away, ignored or postponed. As the National Secretary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), his responsibility is not merely to occupy an office but to demonstrate that the party possesses the organisation, influence and grassroots acceptance required to compete credibly for power. Unfortunately, the results from Osun State, and, more painfully, from his own polling unit raise serious questions about whether he still possesses the political capital necessary to discharge that responsibility.
At PU001, Coop Building Junction, Isare Ward, Ilesha East Local Government, where Aregbesola himself should ordinarily command considerable influence as a former governor of the state, ADC managed a paltry 13 votes, against 258 for APC and 43 for Accord. That result is too stark to be dismissed as an ordinary electoral setback. It is a powerful political verdict from the very constituency where his influence ought to be most visible.
The question that ADC must now confront is therefore straightforward: can a National Secretary who could not deliver his own polling unit credibly be entrusted with the much larger responsibility of helping to deliver the party in the 2027 presidential election?
For the sake of ADC, the answer should be no. Aregbesola should voluntarily step aside as National Secretary, return to Osun, reconcile with his political base and begin the difficult task of rebuilding the confidence that appears to have been seriously eroded.
This is not a call for humiliation. It is a call for political accountability.
The Polling Unit Test
The most damning evidence is not even the overall performance of ADC across Osun State. It is the result recorded in Aregbesola’s own polling unit. For a former governor of Osun State, a former minister of the Federal Republic and the sitting National Secretary of the party contesting the election, 13 votes in his own polling unit is not merely an electoral statistic. It is a political message.
It is difficult to imagine a more compelling warning signal.
A man who cannot persuade his immediate political neighbourhood to vote for the party he leads at the national level must seriously examine whether he possesses the political reach required to deliver the much larger electoral assignment awaiting ADC in 2027.
This is particularly important because Aregbesola has not been an ordinary party member. He is the National Secretary of ADC, a position that places upon him a responsibility for party organisation, mobilisation and electoral success. INEC currently lists him as the party’s National Secretary alongside David Mark as National Chairman.
Indeed, before the election, Aregbesola and the ADC leadership were publicly projecting confidence about the party’s prospects in Osun. He had even declared that ADC had divine support to outsmart other parties in the state.
The result has now provided an opportunity for sober reflection.
If You Cannot Deliver Your Polling Unit, How Can You Deliver Nigeria?
This is the central question. The 2027 presidential election will not be won through press statements, political meetings, rallies, titles or organisational claims. It will be won through millions of individual voters making decisions at thousands of polling units across the country.
If the National Secretary cannot secure meaningful support for ADC at his own polling unit, how can Nigerians be persuaded that the same leadership possesses the organisational capacity to mobilise the country for a presidential victory?
There is nothing wrong with losing an election. Political parties lose elections. Great politicians lose elections. But losing one’s political home while occupying a national leadership position demands accountability.
Aregbesola should therefore not wait for others to force the issue. He should demonstrate the political courage for which he has been known by saying:
“I have done my best. But the result shows that my best is no longer sufficient for the party. I therefore voluntarily step aside.”
That would not diminish him. It would elevate him.
The Greater Problem: Personal Political Structure Versus Party Structure
The more troubling issue is not simply the electoral defeat. It is the allegation that the National Secretary has used his national position to strengthen a parallel political structure around himself rather than build one coherent ADC structure across the Southwest. This is where the party must begin an honest internal examination.
There have been persistent complaints within party circles about the emergence of parallel structures, factional tendencies and the elevation of members of the Omoluabi political family into positions and candidacies that many other party members believe should have been subjected to broader, transparent and genuinely competitive processes.
Indeed, reports had previously documented the Omoluabi Progressives’ decision to present a consensus aspirant from Osun West ahead of the ADC governorship primary, with Aregbesola himself assuring other aspirants that there would be a level playing field. The problem is not that Aregbesola has political associates. Every politician has a political family.
The problem arises when a national party office becomes indistinguishable from the machinery of a personal political tendency.
A national secretary should be a national secretary to every member of ADC, not the secretary of a particular faction, tendency, association or political family.
When party members begin to believe that their chances of securing candidacy depend more upon proximity to the National Secretary than upon their popularity, competence, commitment and performance, the party begins to lose its moral authority. And once that happens, electoral defeat becomes almost inevitable.
Imposition Is the Enemy of Party Growth
ADC cannot honestly claim to be building a new political alternative in Nigeria while reproducing the same practices Nigerians have rejected in the established parties. Where aspirants believe that the outcome of primaries is predetermined; where party membership registers are allegedly ignored; where candidates perceived to be close to powerful officials receive preferential treatment; where parallel structures are tolerated; and where legitimate grievances are not addressed fairly, the party is preparing the ground for its own collapse. A political party is not a private estate. No national officer owns ADC. The party belongs to its members.
The National Secretary should therefore be judged by how much confidence he inspires among ordinary members, not by how many political associates he can place in strategic positions.
A National Secretary Must Be a Unifier, Not a Divider
The office of National Secretary is particularly sensitive.
The secretary is expected to help coordinate the party’s national machinery, maintain organisational cohesion, facilitate communication and strengthen internal administration.
The office cannot effectively perform these functions if the occupant is perceived by substantial sections of the membership as a partisan player in internal factional battles.
ADC is already facing enormous challenges ahead of 2027.
It needs:
a unified national structure;
credible state structures;
transparent primaries;
disciplined membership mobilisation;
effective polling-unit organisation;
reconciliation among aggrieved members;
confidence among aspirants;
a credible dispute-resolution mechanism; and
a leadership that is seen as neutral enough to command the confidence of all tendencies.
What ADC does not need is an internal struggle over who controls which structure.
The Osun Result Should Trigger a Leadership Audit
The party should not simply move on from the Osun election as though nothing happened. The result should trigger an independent political audit of ADC’s performance in Osun State.
Such an audit should examine:
The performance of ADC in every local government.
The performance of the party in every ward.
The performance at polling-unit level.
The effectiveness of the party’s mobilisation machinery.
The role played by national and state leaders.
The handling of the governorship primary.
The level of internal unity before the election.
The extent to which aggrieved aspirants and members were reconciled.
Whether the party’s candidates reflected broad-based acceptance.
Whether the party’s campaign resources were properly deployed.
And when the report is produced, every national officer who contributed to the failure should be prepared to accept responsibility.
Leadership is not only about taking credit when things go well. It also means accepting responsibility when things go wrong.
Aregbesola’s Political Capital Is Not Infinite
Aregbesola has enjoyed considerable political influence in Osun. He governed the state for eight years and later served as Minister of the Interior. He joined ADC’s national leadership in 2025 and publicly reaffirmed his commitment to the party.
But political capital is not a permanent asset. It must be renewed.
The people who once followed a politician may eventually demand evidence that the politician still understands their concerns and commands their confidence.
The 13 votes recorded for ADC in his own polling unit, if accurately reported, should therefore be treated as an urgent political alarm.
It is not sufficient to blame the electorate. It is not sufficient to blame other party leaders. It is not sufficient to blame logistics, resources, campaign difficulties or opposition strength. A serious political leader must first ask:
“What did I do wrong?”
That question is more productive than asking:
“Who should I blame?”
The Honourable Exit
There is still a way for Aregbesola to turn this defeat into political capital.
He should voluntarily relinquish the office of National Secretary.
He should return to Osun.
He should meet the people.
He should reconcile with old allies and former associates.
He should listen to those who disagree with him.
He should rebuild bridges across the political divide.
He should help rebuild ADC from the grassroots – not as the master of a faction but as an elder statesman seeking to restore confidence in himself and the party.
That would be a dignified political retreat, not a defeat.
It would also free ADC to appoint a National Secretary who can devote himself entirely to building a truly national, inclusive and internally democratic organisation capable of confronting the APC in 2027.
The Alternative Is a Vote of No Confidence
If Aregbesola refuses to read the writing on the wall, the danger is that the matter may eventually move beyond voluntary resignation.
The people of Osun and particularly ADC members who have suffered the consequences of poor organisation may ultimately be compelled to express their dissatisfaction through a vote of no confidence.
That would be far more damaging to his reputation than a voluntary resignation today.
There is still an opportunity to avoid that.
Aregbesola can say:
“I have served. I have done my best. But the outcome has shown that the party needs a different approach. For the greater good of ADC, I voluntarily step aside.”
That is the language of statesmanship.
ADC Must Choose Between Personalities and the Party
The question before ADC is larger than Rauf Aregbesola. It is about what kind of political party ADC wants to become.
Will it become another party where powerful individuals dominate structures, determine candidates and impose their preferences?
Or will it become the democratic alternative Nigerians are being promised?
Will ADC operate through transparent rules or through political influence?
Will party membership determine candidates, or will proximity to national officers determine candidates?
Will the party reconcile its members or continue to reproduce factions?
These are existential questions.
The Osun election has provided ADC with an opportunity to confront them honestly.
And the first step should be to ask the National Secretary to take responsibility for the outcome and bow out honourably.
Aregbesola Has Done His Best—But His Best Is No Longer Good Enough
Nobody should deny Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola his place in Osun’s political history.
Nobody should insult his achievements.
Nobody should question his years of service.
But past glory cannot be used to excuse present failure.
The ADC of 2027 requires a leadership structure capable of inspiring confidence from Lagos to Maiduguri, from Osun to Rivers, from Kano to Enugu.
If the party is serious about winning the presidency, it cannot afford to carry into the 2027 election the burden of leaders whose political authority is increasingly being questioned at home.
The message from PU001 is therefore too loud to ignore.
258 for APC. 43 for Accord. 13 for ADC.
For a National Secretary seeking to lead a national party into a presidential election, that is not merely a defeat.
It is a summons to account.
Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola should answer that summons with courage.
He should step aside now, return to Osun, rebuild his political base, reconcile with his people and leave ADC to build a new leadership architecture for 2027.
That would be his most patriotic service to the party at this critical moment.
*ADC must not sacrifice its national future on the altar of one man’s political survival.*
