2027: Emotional Campaign And Vague Promises
In the last three weeks, the country has entered the period of electioneering when politicians-contenders and pretenders alike battle for the soul of the electorate by selling themselves and what they have to offer.
They do so in different ways and means some decent, some pretentious yet others deceptive.
Hence, all is fair in politics and struggle for power which is the ultimate.
The leading contestants led by former vice president Atiku Abubakar has raised the stakes high by promising a reversal of subsidy regime which has come to define the present regime and its core programmes.
Though, Atiku has yet to tell Nigerians how he intends to source money to run his government with the removal of subsidy which funds has accrued to the Federal, 36 states and the 774 local governments, his emotive promise is enough to stir a debate and put the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu led federal government on the defensive.
The focus on subsidy removal is both emotive and has raised public discussions.
Since the standard of living which has in the last three years been grossly affected by price of fuel-the engine life of any mono-product economy, the subsidy issue has attracted not few commentators, both the informed, I’ll informed and the misled who could hardly decipher the logic behind fuel price increase.
Though, the logic of Atiku’s policy is not yet clear, at least he has raised public discourse and diverted attention of the people from asking him his own agenda for the nation.
He has also brought out the best in federal government by explaining the reasons for its action and how the gains were allocated.
The public now knows better.
This appears to be his last titanic battle to clinch the Presidency since 1992 when he joined partisan politics, almost four decades ago.
He himself declared so both in view of his age. He has tried on five different occasions but failed to realise his life ambition.
Thus, Atiku’s reopening of settled cases, and compelling the United States Justice department to dig- up the alleged drug records of his arch rival and incumbent President Bola Tinubu alleged drug records, which records shows has been settled since 2003, shows he is prepared to either bring his prey down by all means necessary or if defeated damaged his international image.
The whole game is likened to the Yoruba adage “bo ba o bulese.”
If you can’t kill the snake, scorch the head.
Ambition is like a toxic drink which assumes its own life in its victim until one claims the other.
Atiku’s campaign which has now assumed a life of its own in a way also propelled erstwhile Labour Party hopeful Peter Obi now of the National democratic Congress, NDC to re-energise his campaign even when it is clear both of them are fighting same battle they fought from different positions in 2023 which robbed them of the Presidency.
Though the campaign and method this time around slightly differ, it is curious why none of them has presented any alternatives to the Renewed Hope Agenda of Tinubu, which implementation rests on subsidy removal and its twin brother, the new CBN forex regime
The new forex regime on its own had pushed the country’s external reserves to a princely $54.1 billion dollars –first in 18 years.
Though Obi differs with Atiku on subsidy revival, he too has failed to tell Nigerians any new programme or manifestoes different from Tinubu’s.
It is clear both are only preoccupied with Tinubu’s defeat and not to effect any policy change since none has convinced Nigerians how they intent to generate funds to run the government.
In other words, both of them seem to agree that Tinubu’s programs for now remain relevant and indispensable since Obi accepted the inevitability of subsidy removal.
Now he talks of effecting a better management of the proceeds.
To justify this, Obi has yet to come out with figures to puncture holes in Tinubu’s alleged management which for now should be in public domain.
The duo also pledged to improve on the NELFUND loan initiative of Tinubu which funding is derived largely from recovery of looted funds.
They also in different form condemned the legacy projects like Lagos-Calabar coastal road which cuts across six states in Southern Nigeria and the Sokoto -Badagry highway which also linked the South with the North.
How they intend to convince the electorate and communities that stand to benefit from opening up their areas remains a big question.
They also have to explain to parents of the almost 2 million student beneficiaries how they intend to assist them with the planned cancellation of the populist programmes.
In short, rather than present to Nigerians what new things they intend to pursue, Atiku and Obi are separately campaigning only on the core programmes of Tinubu, either to improve or to discontinue.
In essence, they are indirectly campaigning for the man they all sought to remove.
Their campaign has focused primarily on how to get rid of the man Tinubu and not what they have to offer Nigerians who are being denied of alternatives for lack of virile opposition in a country of 220 million.
Is this an admission of the fact that the opposition lacks thinkers who can initiate manifestoes or programmes?
Is it also an admission that mere emotions portrayed by “ebi n pa wa (we are hungry)” chorus which is as old as Nigeria itself.
For now, it remains the only campaign slogan since it is the sing song of the common man some of whose problem predates the arrival of Tinubu on the scene.
Since Victor Olaiya released the popular chart buster in early 60’s, titled, “Ilu le o, kosowo l’ode,” things have been relatively hard for the common man, the emergence of petro-dollars in the mid-70s notwithstanding.
What Nigeria needs and is being denied of by the weak opposition parties is intellectual debate to engage the ruling government on where and what it failed to do to improve the living condition of Nigerians.
The government has to be forced to enunciate programmes and take steps to reduce pervasive and grinding poverty which has deepen further in spite of increase in revenue to all tiers of government.
This is lacking both in the opposition parties but also in the public in spite of array of intellectual within and without.
Since the all-conquering, All Progressives Congress, APC, is in firm control of 31 states out of Nigeria’s 36, President Tinubu and the party hierarchy are in a position to call to order, governors who apparently has refused to allow money flow from the sub- nationals to local governments closer to the people.
Though the APC logic that states get more money than hitherto from the Federation account is incontestable, it is a failure on its part to get states to improve lives more so when it is in absolute control of 31 states in the country.
This also portrays the inherent weakness in our federal constitution which robs the state of control by the government at the centre.
From whatever prism you look at the macro-economy of the country, failure of state governments to jettison exotic projects like building of bridges where there is no water and construction of airports with no feasibility consideration is the fundamental cause of grinding poverty which is being weaponised by the opposition though not potent enough to force the sub nationals to have a rethink on their governance models.
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An angry man is clearly a hungry man and likened to Yoruba saying: “Ebi ki wonu ki oro mi tun wo.”
Is it not logical to state that failure of the state governments to run their local economy in a way to create jobs and put food on the table of its citizens has created the potent weapon and ground for organised opposition against Tinubu during the January polls?
But have they utilized this to campaign to the people in the states to call out their governments and demand accountability.
However, since all the major opposition parties like the ADC, NDC, PDP, Labour and SDP have failed to ignite the G 100 to field a common Presidential candidate, they’ve made Tinubu the man to beat.
At the end of the day, it is doubtful if the two major parties could garner the votes as they did in 2023 election and make next year’s election a tough one for Tinubu to win.
With 31 state governors in its kitty and the resources at its disposal, it would take a magic for either the Atiku’s ADC and Obi/Kwakwansos NDC to make an impact.
It is clear to all and sundry that politics everywhere is a game of numbers.
Today, what is left for the NDC in Kano is a tattered Kwakwansiya movement that remains the only reliable block that Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso, the Vice Presidential Candidate of Obi, can bring to the table of NDC.
None of the two major political parties – the ADC and NDC had a sitting governor who could mobilise men and resources while their NASS members have also been decimated.
Contesting against a ruling party which claim to have 10 million registered members remains a pipe dream for upstart parties with no grassroots mobilisation.
Interesting times lie ahead.
