Since its launch few months ago, the fledgling African Democratic Congress, ADC, has had its own fair share of crisis informed by cobbling together of high stake politicians who moved out of both the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, and the main opposition, People’s Democratic Party, PDP, now on its death throes.
Ordinarily, as a new party, the ADC though not supposed to be insulated from intra party crisis, the men of means and power seekers who formed its nucleus have allowed their personal interest to weigh down the party yet to win a single seat in any of the vied elections held by the INEC.
The party’s problems in other words emanated from top and could easily prevent it from having roots at the bottom. For now, the ADC is top heavy.
It is not known to represent any ideology rather than the quest for power and change of guards at the National level.
It is yet to unveil and programme that could tell a different story to the people few months to the National convention.
Trouble started last Tuesday February 24 when gunmen fired several shots at vehicle of former LP Presidential candidate, Peter Obi who just emerged from a meeting with ADC stakeholders in the Benin residence of Chief Odigie Oyegun.
They were planning to formally welcome Tayo Akpata, former PDP gubernatorial candidate into the party.
The shooting incident generated curiosity in political circles as several conspiracy theories surfaced on possible source of conflict for the party. Accusing fingers were pointed in the direction of the ruling APC.
Curiously, sources affirmed that internal scheming to control the party in the South -South region was the source of the violent conflict.
Yet, others point to decision of planners of the parley to shut out some members in the region from the meeting.
Whatever it is, it becoming clear by the day that ADC may not go into next January election as one if the party refused to subsumed individual differences to build support base at the grassroots.
If there is any political party in need of serious grassroots mobilisation, it is ADC with none among the 36 states in its fold.
Today, what we have is several office seekers struggling for the soul of the party that is hardly prepared to face election but more visible on social media than on the streets where the voters are.
Rotimi Amaechi, one of the presidential hopefuls of the party spoke as much when he hit the nail on the head by asserting that rather than blame incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his party the APC for its woes, it should look inward to resolve its problems adding, “The problem is the opposition. We are our own problem. When the opposition is ready, Nigeria will change “.
As for him, the opposition party must offer something different from the ruling party.
He also beliefs Tinubu’s strategy is rooted in the weakness of the opposition and wondered aloud about the source of Tinubu’s boldness in spite of the opposition to him from many quarters.
Akin Oshuntokun, PDP member is also of the view that the opposition “in unserious with less than a year to the elections “.The opposition in Nigeria is acting irresponsibly. Look at what El Rufai said about the importation of poisonous substance. That most irresponsible.
He is trying to divert attention from the well-established corruption charges against him” he enthused further.
The question is..Is the opposition short of bold and courageous leaders?.
Osuntokun spoke just as a faction of the party in the South -South zone endorsed him to carry its flag for the forthcoming presidential primaries just barely two months away.
If this is carried out, it presupposes that Obi, widely favored to pick the Vee Pee ticket in the event of his not been able to defeat Atiku, will likely have to work hard to get the ticket many assumed may be awarded him by the Southern flank of the party. If he fails to contain Amaechi’s crowd, may be pushed back.
Though, this claim has since been denied, the fact remains that ADC in the South may not be going into the presidential primary as one.
This may give Abubakar Atiku, the man who donated the party’s national secretariat the edge since nobody for now seems to have shown interest from the North.
Besides, Atiku is a master of the game of presidential primaries.
Having journeyed from ACN to APC,PDP and now in the newly formed ADC built around him, he knows what to do to get what he wanted.
Could the ADC avoid the fate which befell the PDP in 2023 when Atiku jettisoned zoning regarded as mutual understanding on rotation of Presidency between the North and South and pushed the Southern flank of the PDP to the hands of Obi and Nyesom Wike who have practically removed the soul of the southern arm of PDP- at least from the South-South zone.?
It is also important to know that ADC already top heavy appears to concentrate its eyes more on the Presidency than the states and other elections.
In the case of a dead lock in the Presidential primary, would the contenders from the South jettison individual interest and back one candidate to defeat any candidate the North may present?
As things stand today could the ADC profit from the defections from the dying PDP which structure still remains visible than the ADC already with feet of clay.
Could the ADC attract any of the six states out of the control of the APC to beef -up its strength?
Coming from zero level, will the ADC be able to mobilise enough resources especially with the incarceration of its top leaders and financiers like Abubakar Malami and Nasir El Rufai-two top and influential political players from the North who may not have the freedom to mobilise for the party considering their various alleged graft cases.
Dele Momodu, journalist and member of the ADC also feels that the weakness of the opposition today remains the missing link in Tinubu’s strategy and politics.
Momodu contended that with a second term already assured for the incumbent with the state governors defecting in droves to the APC, it is only a matter of time for a full -blown civilian dictatorship.
How this is feasible in Nigeria remains a matter of conjecture.
He, however failed to prescribe how the opposition could unite for a common cause without allowing individual interests to define their support.
During the 2023 elections, one of the drawbacks of the LP is that it has few polling agents in the thousands of polling booths scattered all over the country .
Except it is able to correct LPs mistake or diminished capacity, it is clear that lack of capacity to recruit polling agents remains one of the reasons for the botched campaign for ‘real time’ transmission of result which itself derived its strength from INECs Form EC8.
Till date, the Form EC 8 remains the primary source of results declared at the collation centres.
Even when results are transmitted’ real time’ such is dependent on the records in the primary source which remains the Form EC8.
The ADC and other parties have just 60 days to commence the conduct of its primaries for all elections.
This means in effect that any party still struggling to have a united house at all levels have a limited chance of facing the other parties in its contest for the consideration of the electorate.
Can the ADC puts its house in order to present a united front to face other contending parties barely ten months to the general election.
Except this is done the PDP already on its death bed may spring more surprises especially at the grassroots level than the ADC in spite of the men of timber and caliber that has jumped into its ship.
The nation waits!
