By
Chief Akinwumi Akinfenwa
Let us stop pretending.
Nigeria is not angry because of politics.
Nigeria is angry because of hunger, insecurity, arrogance of power, and broken promises.
And as 2027 approaches, the most uncomfortable question confronting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is no longer who will oppose him — it is where will his votes come from?
Because the old Nigeria that could be herded to the polling booth with slogans, ethnic arithmetic, and elite agreements no longer exists.
*The Lie of Incumbency Advantage*
For decades, Nigerian politicians believed incumbency guaranteed victory. Control the centre. Control the money. Control the security agencies. Control the narrative.
That lie has expired.
Incumbency without results is not an advantage — it is an indictment. Every hungry child, every farmer chased off his land, every commuter kidnapped on the highway is now part of the opposition.
You cannot weaponise propaganda against empty stomachs.
*A Nation Under Siege — And a Silent Centre*
Let us speak plainly.
Nigeria is bleeding. Entire communities in the Middle Belt and the North are being wiped out. Christian populations, in particular, feel abandoned, unheard, and expendable. The killings continue. The displacement grows. The silence from the centre is deafening.
This is not just a security failure. It is a moral collapse.
And the world is watching.
International narratives — including voices emerging from the United States and Israel — are increasingly framing Nigeria as a state unwilling or unable to protect its citizens. That perception will haunt any government seeking legitimacy, investment, or diplomatic credibility.
You cannot campaign your way out of moral failure.
*Hunger Has Radicalised the Nigerian Voter*
Let us stop insulting Nigerians with economic theories while their lives collapse.
Food prices have doubled. Transportation is crushing. Jobs are disappearing. Small businesses are dying. Families are skipping meals — not dieting, not “adjusting” — skipping meals.
This is not reform. This is economic violence.
And hunger does not listen to party jingles. Hunger does not respect incumbents. Hunger votes with rage.
*The Old Alliances Are Cracking — Everywhere*
Look across Nigeria:
The North is no longer politically obedient. Insecurity and poverty have broken the old social contract.
The South East remains alienated and unconvinced by APC governance.
The South South feels exploited, not included.
The North Central feels sacrificed.
Even the South West, Tinubu’s supposed fortress, is restless — especially among young voters who see no future in the current trajectory.
This is not opposition propaganda. This is lived reality.
*A New Coalition Is Emerging — And It Terrifies the Establishment*
For the first time in years, heavyweight political actors from all six geopolitical zones are aligning outside the ruling structure. Not because they are saints — but because the centre has failed.
A Coalition Nigeria Has Not Seen Before
Across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, a new opposition alignment is quietly but steadily taking shape:
Atiku Abubakar retains deep political networks across the North East and the North at large.
Peter Obi, anchored in the South East, continues to command an organic, youth-driven followership that refuses to dissipate.
Rotimi Amaechi brings strategic weight from the South South, particularly among voters alienated by resource control and economic stagnation.
Rauf Aregbesola, once a pillar of the ruling establishment, now signals cracks even within the South West, Tinubu’s supposed fortress.
David Mark, a steady hand in the North Central, resonates strongly in a region traumatised by violence and abandonment.
Nasir el-Rufai, from the North West, represents a dangerous wildcard — proof that the APC’s northern consensus is no longer guaranteed.
This is not just a gathering of politicians. It is the first serious attempt at a pan-regional counter-alignment since the end of military rule. And it comes at a time when the ruling party’s moral authority is at its weakest.
This is not about personalities. It is about converging discontent.
The ruling party mocks this coalition because mockery is easier than self-reflection. But beneath the jokes is fear — fear that Nigerians may finally realise that regional division has only protected incompetence.
*2027 Will Not Be Business as Usual*
Let this be said clearly:
You cannot govern forever on borrowed legitimacy.
You cannot demand sacrifice while living in excess.
You cannot ignore insecurity, hunger, and injustice and still expect applause.
Tinubu’s old formula — elite deals, regional arithmetic, and propaganda — has expired.
2027 will not be decided by party logos. It will be decided by anger. By memory. By survival instincts.
Nigerians are no longer voting blind.
They are voting hungry.
They are voting angry.
They are voting awake.
And when a people wake up, no amount of power can put them back to sleep.
© Chief Akinwumi Akinfenwa
Political Scientist, Public Policy Analyst, Social Commentator, and Advocate for Constitutional Decency lives in Ibadan
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