Tinubu, Osun And 2027 Permutations
The keenly contested off-season governorship elections in Osun State –a state which adopted name of a living spring but which had since recorded much acrimony in terms of power struggle has come and gone.
Unknown to many, the outcome of the elections witnessed unprecedent intrigues in three formidable quarters –the Adeleke political family, the APC whose forerunner the AD that first won election in 1999 upon return of democracy and the Presidency of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
While the Adeleke family as represented by their son, Ademola it will be recalled had straddled between the AD , ACN and the APC in its bid to take a chunk of leadership of the state people more by civil servants hence relied more on mo they hand out from the federal purse.
Thus, incumbent Ademola more noted for his dancing skills than novel governance had by this victory proved the indisputable influence of his immediate family and two local government, Osun East and West which votes it will be recalled combined with Ife to give him victory in 2022.
Ademola himself being a by-product of his late brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke, first civilian Governor of the state created in 1991, having died suddenly some years ago.
That in spite of the acrimony, bitter and violent struggle, Adeleke could muster 511, 067 thousand votes out of the 1, 005, 800 voters who turned up Saturday to elect another Governor, confirms his clans superiority over other political forces in the state and its being a decisive factor in who gets what in the near elections in the state except a new force emerge to rally other senatorial zones behind him.
Having won the election in 19 local governments in the state is also an indication that bigger part of the state’s electoral constituency is in the pocket of the political tendency the Adeleke’s belong.
One of the complaints of the opposition from other parts of the state led by an old ally, former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola is what they called ‘Edenisation’ of the state in terms of monopoly of appointments and citing of critical projects which gulped sizeable part of the state resources.
A critical example is the citing of Osun State airport in Ede and leadership of both Osun State polytechnic in Iree and Osun State College of Technology, Esa Oke.
For the opposition APC in the state, which fought from behind to score 444, 815 votes against the incumbent, is no mean achievement especially given the acrimony in the party.
The acrimony, it will be recalled, led to the exit of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola –once a very close ally of Tinubu.
It should also be noted, the cold attitude of former Deputy Governor, Senator Iyiola Omisore, who felt shortchanged in the process that produced Oyebamiji.
That he put a bold face to appear in the last mega rally for the tough contest on Thursday two days to speaks volume of the intrigues within the local APC.
APC loss in Ife North, Ife East, Ife Central, Oriade, Ifelodun is being attributed to Omisore’s ‘cold shoulder’ to his party.
There is no doubt that Saturday’s election drew much physical and emotional blood and distrust from both Accord and APC so deep that Tinubu, who obviously played a fast game in stopping EFCC frozen of Osuns account, ten days to election is seen as a deft political move to indirectly pacify and cultivate Adeleke –at least by preventing EFCC from rubbishing Adeleke. This intervention in itself is seen as setting a precedence that could undermine the anti-graft agency.
In other words, if the intention of Tinubu is to get Adeleke who used Accord party as a special purpose holding party after the death of PDP, into the APC ahead of January election, he has taken the first step.
What is more, his assertion in his congratulatory message to Adeleke barely twelve hours after, is election that the result was a proof of Osun people confidence in him speaks volume in its patronising content
The message by Tinubu is also aimed at creating a level playing field for contestants in election in other states as impartiality of INEC and security agencies both before and after the election attracts commendation by all.
For effect, since politics is a game of numbers, Tinubu’s massaging of Adeleke’s ego by his message is a reminder to the later not to renegade on its earlier commitment to support Tinubu during January next year.
Tinubu by the message may also have accepted the reality that APC divided house in Osun could not alone give him victory during next year’s presidential election.
Since, incidences prior to the tough contest last Saturday probably opened up Adeleke’s clan and political tendency to Tinubu’s rivals, his performance by scoring 511, 000 votes is enough for Tinubu to stretch hands to him.
The combination of votes of Adeleke and APC’s Oyebanji in 2027 is a cool 1 million for Tinubu who lost Osun to Atiku in 2023 elections.
With the 1.954 million registered voters in Osun, a rapport and understanding with Adeleke’s Accord which has no Presidential candidate is necessary for Tinubu to get his South West region behind him in the tough battle in 2027 which he is poised to face from Abubakar Atiku, a veteran of the contest and Peter Obi’s rabbit South East followership.
Atiku, it is apparent is making his last bid for the Presidency and has behind him Northern irredentists who are upset by Tinubu’s economic and military reforms that has changed the status quo in North South power equation.
In the light of the above, Adeleke’s open commendation of Tinubu in his acceptance speech for allowing free and fair election that returned him prompted him to reinstate his endorsement of Tinubu for a second term next year.
That he referred to Tinubu as son of the soil is synonymous with “you rob my back, I rob yours.”
Where then does this rapport between Tinubu and Adeleke leave the home front APC members who put all their arsenal to stop Adeleke’s reelection?
In the face of that, should Adeleke contemplate joining the APC in Osun-an attempt which was resisted early this year, Tinubu had much to do to get his brother former Governor and Deep Blue Minister, Gboyega Oyetola and his supporters to settle with Adeleke and reconcile and reinvigorate party members who are bitter after losing out.
Tinubu thus had to rein in his foot soldiers in Osun and other South West States to counter possible electoral coup by the North West which in spite of huge projects cited in their domain, may mobilise against Tinubu in 2027.
Atiku is bent on doing this since he neither belief in power rotation or a Southern presidency.
Hence, the management and outcome of the events that gave Adeleke a second term deserves to be revisited by Tinubu after all he it is appearing he has lost Osun.
Interesting times lie ahead as the nation moves towards 2027.
