Opposition: Sound Without Fury
Life is full of sound and fury signifying nothing- Williams Shakespeare-Macbeth (Act 5, Scene 5).
Above reflects on the absurdity and futility of life, concluding it is a chaotic, pointless tale, full of noise, intense emotion, and ambition, yet ultimately “signifying nothing”.
Vanity upon Vanity as the Holy Says in Ecclesiastes 1:2 is all vanity. All human pursuits power, wealth and fame all are but all full of sound and fury signifying nothing.
From the above, it goes to show that human efforts to conquer life and dominate, influence and got the maximum from it all end in vanity.
But then, in spite of all, the vanity of life and human exploits has not in any way deter man from pursing goals and aspirations even if at the end of the day, it brought nothing but vanity.
Men struggle to get power, influence all which melt away with time.
The declaration last week Friday in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital and former seat of government in the then Western Region by Governor Seyi Makinde of a repeat of the ‘Operation Wetie’ mayhem which set the then region and ultimately Nigeria on fire, will repeat itself in 2027 all in desperate pursuit of intent, purpose for power, is a clear declaration of threat by a sitting Governor.
That he did so while hosting a motley crowd of leading opposition politicians to reenact history and possibly repeat the consequences the Operation Wetie brought should they fail to capture power is quiet instructive.
It shows that men forgot nothing and learnt nothing from history.
If the Governor was alive and conscious of implications it brought between the period 1964 and 1966 when the mayhem lasted, perhaps he would probably not have wished a repeat performance.
It is certain he read it in the books or heard the tale from the elderly.
But then, since Governor Makinde is one of only two remaining governors of the dying People’s Democratic Party, PDP, he still command reasonable following in government and power at least in his Oyo State.
This probably made him as the host of the Summit of opposition politicians and face of both his party.
It is an open secret that his party, the PDP, is fationalised down the line.
Makinde is technically partyless today because only the faction led by Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, is recognised in law and by extension, the INEC.
Today, he controls what is left of the party which once boasted it would rule Nigeria for sixty years.
But then, since Makinde has the instrument of office and power declarations and statements comes easy.
Thus, his declaration of reenacting ‘Operation Wetie’ in Ibadan, in 2027 is instructive and as dangerous as it sounds.
Ibadan the capital of the famous Wild, Wild West is noted for setting the democracy of Nigeria on fire that led to demise of the First republic in 1966.
Makinde by inference is warning that same fate could befall the Fourth republic of which he is one of the direct beneficiaries.
This portends danger for all lovers of democracy.
Though, both Makinde’s Turakis faction and David Mark’s faction of the PDP and ADC are still waiting on the Supreme Court to pronounce verdict on them in two weeks time, Makinde perhaps made the declaration to either ‘threaten’ the five men of the Bench to give them recognition in order to contest next year’s election or prepare for the consequences.
The declaration in the face of it makes the two factions of the tottering parties bold in rhetoric but in reality lacks the platform to capture power.
Should the Supreme Court pronounce a negative judgement for both Turaki and Mark, then the two contending forces had an opportunity to come together as they did in Ibadan last week to translate Makinde’s boast into reality.
Should that be the case, they have to avoid the Yoruba proverb which says: “Rikisi pa won po, won dore, ko to ojo, ko to osu, Ore baje;”meaning Conspiracy binds them together but within a short time they scattered.
This in most cases could happen if both political parties failed in their resolve to present only one candidate.
Would individual ego and ambitions of their leaders take a back seat to allow a single candidate to emerge?
It is quite obvious that personal ambition and inflated ego destroyed the PDP in 2023 and ultimately berthed today’s ADC made strong by deserters from PDP.
For Makinde’s threat to carry weight and bite, he and the ‘powerful’ stakeholders in both factions who are all fighting for power and influence would have to sink personal ambitions, Unite and build the comatose political grassroots which they have separately thrown away in 2023.
Today, only Makinde and the fledgling Governor Adamu Mohammed of Bauchi remain in power to contend with the 32 governors in APC who by now have commenced campaign to return their party to power in their states while the PDP and ADC are still battling for INEC recognition obtainable now only through the Supreme Court ruling.
On what party and platform then will Makinde gather enough men and trouble shooters who will shake Ibadan and indeed Nigerias political landscape with a new fashion of ‘Operation Wetie’.
Today, though Makinde is in power in Ibadan and by extension Oyo State, can he of a fact boast of the popularity, strength and support of the state he once ruled with the thumb since 2019?
Since his faction of the PDP is standing on one leg, can he also guarantee the support of the crowd which crowned him in 2019 and made him popular in Oyo State.
Since politics is about interest, could he and the principals in what is left of the PDP and ADC like Abubakar Atiku-equally facing opposition in Adamawa and by extension North East, ignite Wetie in their region.
Could Rauf Aregbesola, the then strong man of Osun politics, ignite the same fiery Oranmiyan group now almost in dissaray to start trouble in Osun and make it ungovernable?
Could David Mark, two times Senate President ignite so much passion and emotions to hold on to control Benue politics and reignite Middle Belt solidarity?.
As for Peter Obi, who has almost equalled Atiku in changing political parties allegiance in the last couple of years, could he still ignite the same level of youthful fervour which elevated him to national symbol in 2023?
Could Obi still reenact and energise the now fractured Obidient Movement into same potent force as he did in 2023.
What structures has Obi really put on ground this last three years to empower his followers with such potency to reenact Operation Wetie to make both the South East and by extension the country ungovernable should the result of 2027 presidential poll run contrary to his expectations?
With the resolve of the Enugu, Imo and Ebonyi governors to attract followership to the APC in their states to retain power, it is doubtful whether Obi could obtain 92% of votes he gathered from all the states in the region in 2023.
With APGAs Anambra Governor Charles Soludo’s open endorsement of incumbent President Bola Tinubu in 2027, would Obi be able to whittle down Soludo’s influence though he still could still retain support of larger Igbo voters bent on Obi or nothing.
Today, it is eight months to next elections, have the Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso group able to retain the latter’s messianic followership in Kano amidst growing schisms among the Kwakwansiya movement?
Is it reasonable to discountenance the influence of sitting Governor Abba Yusuf in Kano and influence of former governor Shekarau who has also joined Yusuf in APC further whittling down Kwakwansos messianic influence among the Talakawas in Kano
Since Atiku is yet to recant his declaration to contest next year’s presidential election, would the two contentious factions in ADC able to cone together and adopt only one candidate?
Proclamations and declarations mixed with threats could only be effective when opposition groups sink differences, bury ambitions and ego towards building a formidable grassroots political front.
The APC, which took off in 2013, was able to bark and bite because it was built from bottom up.
This occurred when political tendencies in disparate parties team up to forge a front pushing aside personal ambition, ego and self pursuit, a strong base is established for grassroots mobilisation and power.
Events of the next four weeks both in the judiciary and among the fledgling opposition parties will shape the outcome of next year’s election.
The ability of the opposing forces to forge together in common goal will determine their capacity to gain or capture power or do otherwise as threatened by Makinde who is probably facing the greatest threat to his power and relevance in Oyo politics and by extension Nigeria.
